Fossil fuel prices surged on Thursday as the conflict between Israel and Iran entered its sixth day, prompting warnings that British households face significantly higher energy bills this winter. The crisis underscores the UK’s vulnerability to geopolitical instability and the urgent require to accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources, experts say.
The latest escalation, following US-Israeli attacks on Iran, has already seen Brent crude oil prices rise sharply. Bob Ward, from the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics, warned that the ongoing conflict “could translate into significantly higher energy bills for British households and consumers.” He emphasized that the UK’s reliance on international fossil fuel markets leaves it exposed to these price fluctuations and that expanding domestic clean energy production – renewables and nuclear power – is the only viable solution.
Research published on Thursday by the Transition Security Project revealed the economic fallout from previous energy crises. The study found that the energy shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cost the EU and the UK $1.8tn between 2022 and 2025, contributing to a severe cost of living crisis. The report highlighted a growing dependence on liquid natural gas imports from the US, potentially giving Washington significant leverage over European energy supplies.
The findings echo concerns raised by UN climate chief Simon Stiell, who stated that the upheaval in the Middle East “shows yet again that fossil fuel dependence leaves economies, businesses, markets and people at the mercy of each new conflict or trade policy lurch.” Stiell advocated for a rapid shift to renewables, citing their decreasing costs and faster deployment times as key advantages.
Ed Miliband, the UK’s Energy Secretary, echoed these sentiments on Wednesday, stating that the latest conflict is “yet another reminder that the only route to energy security and sovereignty for the UK is to get off our dependence on fossil fuel markets, whose prices we do not control, and onto clean homegrown power we do.” He criticized the opposition’s resistance to the government’s clean energy mission, arguing they had failed to learn from the consequences of the Ukraine war.
Despite calls for increased investment in renewables, some Conservative MPs have urged the government to reverse its ban on new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea, advocating for the approval of fields like Rosebank and Jackdaw. However, experts dismiss these proposals as ineffective in addressing energy bills or improving long-term energy security. Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift, argued that new oil fields like Rosebank would primarily yield oil for export, providing minimal benefit to UK gas supplies – contributing only one percent of UK gas demand – and would not shield households from price shocks.
Khan further pointed out that even with continued North Sea development, the UK will likely become almost entirely reliant on gas imports by 2050 due to declining reserves, leaving consumers vulnerable to future price volatility. She called for a rapid expansion of renewable energy sources and home energy efficiency upgrades as the only sustainable solution.
The conflict also comes as Azerbaijan demanded answers from Iran after a drone exploded at an airport, injuring two people, adding another layer of regional instability. The situation remains fluid, with the Israeli military announcing a move to a new phase of its offensive, focusing on “undermining the Iranian regime” and intensifying strikes against its facilities. The UK government has not ruled out joining offensive actions, according to Britain’s defence minister John Healey, speaking at RAF Akrotiri.
