2023-06-04 07:05:07
Ukrainian optimism anticipating the upcoming counterattack, matched by Western fears of minefields laid by the Ukrainians and Russian fortifications designed to trap any enemy units in artillery fire.
And while Western reports warned of a decline in morale among the Ukrainian army due to the loss of Bakhmut, the British newspaper “Express” put Kiev’s options for launching attacks and possible locations for the first strike.
Despite this, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced, on Saturday, his country’s readiness to launch an offensive to regain its lands, adding to the American Wall Street Journal: “We strongly believe that we will succeed.”
Kiev hopes that this attack will change the course of the war, which broke out with the Russian invasion of its lands 15 months ago.
West sent all needs
According to White House spokesman John Kirby, Washington is confident it has met Kiev’s counterattack needs, adding, according to a press briefing, on Friday:
- We have met all of Ukraine’s needs for the offensive.
- Determining the time of the attack is up to the Ukrainians.
- The United States and its allies have done much and are ready to do much more in the coming weeks and months.
What are the goals of the counterattack?
According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, his country has serious chances of achieving a breakthrough during the summer.
Regarding the targets of the attack, Reznikov specified this during an interview with the French newspaper West France, saying:
- Breaking the Russian resolve to win this war.
- Return to the internationally recognized 1991 borders of Ukraine, including Crimea.
Where is the possible first strike?
Regarding Ukraine’s best options for its attack and where the potential first strike is located, former British Army Colonel Stuart Crawford identified 3 possible options, according to the newspaper “Express”:
- The Ukrainians would start south from the area around Zaporizhia towards Melitopol and then to the northern shores of the Sea of Azov.
- If successful, the land bridge between Russia and Crimea will be severed and the Russian forces in southern Ukraine will be displaced. The Russians will then begin to turn westward and regroup in Kherson, threatening Crimea.
- The Russians could be distracted and deceived by launching long-range attacks into central Donbass and around Bakhmut, and here they might be encircled and the Ukrainians would regain some of their territory.
- It is possible that Ukrainian forces could take advantage of the latest incursion into the Russian border by turning left, striking the Belgorod region and then south, where they would surround the Russian “Magino Line” – as the Germans did with the Allies through the Ardennes in 1940 during World War II.
Bloodbath and demoralization
The Washington Post says that several obstacles await the counterattack, including what the Ukrainians caused themselves, as they will have to cross the rights of the mines they have planted and which are difficult to remove.
She added, “If this crossing succeeds, they will be greeted by the impregnable Russian fortifications, which are designed to trap any units in Russian artillery fire, which may prevent the counter-attack before it begins.”
It quoted Marc Cancian, a naval officer and defense expert, as saying: “If the Russian fortifications were successfully overrun, it would be a bloodbath very similar to World War I.”
As for the American National Review magazine, it says:
- Low morale of the Ukrainians could disrupt the attack.
- There is a pessimistic mood in Ukraine caused by the loss of Bakhmut.
- The West forces Kiev to attack, which puts Zelensky in a difficult position.
Ukrainian military expert Oleh Danilov responded to “Sky News Arabia” about Western reports that talk about the low morale of the Ukrainians, saying:
- The initiative is now in the hands of Ukraine.
- Moscow is facing the counterattack and it is burdened with major weaknesses. It is not the lack of weapons and ammunition supplies on the battle fronts, but rather the morale of its forces and the level of their training and professional performance.
- The strong performance of the Ukrainians in information warfare will contribute to the deterioration of the morale of the Russian forces.
- Morale is high to regain the occupied lands and the counterattack will reveal the Russian military weaknesses.
As for the Russian military expert, Vladimir Igor, he says that Kiev faces several obstacles:
- Russian air strikes have removed senior military leaders from service.
- The Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed most of the western armories and ordnance stores.
- Ukraine suffers from a shortage of professional military personnel.
- The Russian defensive lines in the cities that Russia controlled in eastern Ukraine prevent and break any waves of attack.
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