Uncertainty slows down family consumption. In 2024 +1.4% of disposable income

Quarter after quarter the economy is doing well overall, as demonstrated by the latest data on GDP and employment, but uncertainty is the evil that slows down family consumption. This is what the latest edition of the Confcommercio-Censis Observatory on consumption and trust reveals. Although the levels of 2007 are still far away, in 2024, in real terms, «a growth in disposable income of 1.4% and consumption of around 0.9% is expected and this demonstrates our overall positive vision of the health of the our economy” says Mariano Bella, director of the Confcommercio research office. From the survey, carried out on a sample of a thousand families, we see how “the balance between optimists and pessimists on six-month future expectations is 10 points below compared to a year ago and a little below the 2018 values”. The barometer on purchasing intentions marks “very moderate”. Thus, from large appliances to cars, from housing to technological products, the intentions remain «all under the self-declarations recorded before the pandemic, that is, in 2019 which was otherwise a bad year – underlines Bella -. In other words, this specific picture tells us that we are not at all out of the risk zone of returning to rates of change in economic activity around zero point nothing, as in the twenty pre-pandemic years, those of decline.” The decline in confidence “especially concerns young people and people in the job market” continues the director of the Confcommercio research office, an element that contrasts with the employment numbers. The survey highlights how «both young and old indicate that the young generations are the most fragile subjects, from a socio-economic and occupational point of view. The most relevant, and also most disturbing, aspect is that practically no young person sees the elderly as the section of the population most in difficulty” reports Bella. In fact, only 3.3% of young people between 18 and 35 think that the elderly age group is currently penalized more. As for the issue of demographic decline, «everyone, especially young people, and with a significant difference, are worried about the economic dimension of starting a family and having children, therefore, beyond the complex socio-demographic reasons, the question of income from work and economic conditions, including housing, to compress the propensity to start a family”. In fact, 56.3% of young people between 18 and 35 explain that the main reason why few children are had in Italy is the difficulty of finding stable employment and decent housing. «Despite some fragility in some production sectors, the Italian economy is holding up well: employment is growing, tourism is vital, especially in the foreign component, inflation is under control – comments Carlo Sangalli, president of Confcommercio -. However, uncertainty about the future slows down investments and consumption. To regain confidence, above all, a half-point cut in interest rates by the ECB is needed and to accelerate the implementation of the tax reform.”