2024-01-11 15:02:26
Manhattan in New York, January 9, 2024. (AFP / ANGELA WEISS)
Inflation started to rise again in December in the United States after several months of decline, notably due to housing prices, a theme which will be central to the presidential election in November, as the Republican primaries begin on Monday.
Consumer prices increased by 3.4% year-on-year in December, compared to 3.1% in November, according to the CPI index published Thursday by the Department of Labor, and on which pensions are indexed.
This is more than expected, since analysts predicted a slight rebound, to 3.2%, according to the Market Watch consensus.
Over one month alone, the increase also accelerated, to 0.3% compared to 0.1% the previous month.
Housing prices “continued to increase in December, contributing more than half of the monthly increase,” the Labor Department said in its press release.
However, if we remove the volatile prices of food and energy, the so-called core inflation slows down, to 3.9% over one year compared to 4.0% in November, and remains stable over one year. month, at 0.3%.
However, inflation had slowed in the fall.
High prices for more than two years, and the difficulty many households have in filling their shopping carts at the supermarket or finding accommodation, remain a handicap for President Joe Biden.
The price increase reached 9.1% over one year in June 2022, the highest level since 1981.
Continuing to bring down inflation, without causing a recession or increasing the unemployment rate, now seems within reach.
“We are enjoying a soft landing,” said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday on the sidelines of a trip to Vienna (Virginia).
The year 2024 should also be marked by a drop in interest rates, which should allow consumers to borrow more easily, a method of purchasing that Americans are fond of, and not just to buy houses or cars.
– “Expected effect” –
The Republican opposition, which begins its nomination primaries on Monday – with Donald Trump as the favorite – regularly accuses Joe Biden of having fueled inflation, by adopting vast expenditures intended to revive economic activity after the crisis caused by Covid-19.
Former Republican President Donald Trump made his record in this area one of his main arguments during the 2020 campaign.
Joe Biden, also a candidate for re-election, inherited a situation largely degraded by the Covid crisis. He repeatedly insists that the country’s current good economic health “is not the result of chance”, but the result of its economic policy.
Faced with rising prices, however, it is the American central bank (Fed), more than the White House, which has the cards in hand.
It has therefore raised its rates since March 2022, to increase the cost of credit, and thus discourage consumption.
“Inflation data from the last six months indicate that the measures (…) have had the desired effect, namely a better balance between supply and demand,” greeted Monday, Michelle Bowman, a governor of the Fed, warning however of the many risks that persist.
The Fed, at its last meeting in mid-December, kept rates in the range of 5.25 to 5.50%, and signaled expected cuts for 2024.
The measure of inflation favored by the Fed, the PCE index, fell in November to the lowest since the start of 2021, to 2.6% over one year. December figures will be released on January 26.
1704989144
#Inflation #starts #rise #December #United #States #p.m