2024-01-12 20:05:19
On February 24, it will be 2 years since Russia invaded Ukraine. A war which had significant repercussions on energy markets, causing a surge in gas and electricity prices. Today, the war is not over, yet prices have fallen sharply and do not seem to be increasing. How to explain this situation?
It was everyone’s fear a year ago: opening their energy bill and discovering monthly payments that were times four. Today, there is still war in Ukraine, another conflict has broken out in the Middle East, and yet… The curve has been decreasing since the summer of 2022.
If we look at the prices over the past year: we were at €80/MWh in January 2023 and today, in January 2024, we are at €30/MWh. “We have had two successive relatively mild winters, which helps us a lot to reduce household consumption, which is the main consumption of gas in Belgium. And moreover, there are the energetic sobriety efforts of households, which have been combined with this to have an extremely low gas demand at the moment”explains Stéphane Bocqué, spokesperson for the Belgian Federation of Electrical Companies.
We consume less than before. And what’s more, it’s been generally warm since the fall and stocks are still very high. “When we have a relatively abundant supply and a relatively contained demand, that’s the key to success”he emphasizes. “And how does this translate? We see this in European gas stocks. Currently, we are at a level of 82% filling of gas stocks as of January 11, 2024. As of January 11, 2022, we were approximately at 50%.”
No spike in the price of electricity either: €124/MWh a year ago. 108€/MWh a few days ago. This is ultimately normal when we know that it is largely linked to the price of gas.
Heating oil is also rather cheap: €1.10/L a year ago, compared to €0.93/L today. Energy is therefore relatively affordable at the moment. But you have to be careful. “We must pay close attention to the futurewarns Stéphane Bocqué. We are in a market in which the slightest news can shake things up and cause prices to rise relatively violently.”
Wood and pellets are also down compared to last year’s price. But overall, all energy products remain above pre-crisis prices.
Energy prices
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