2023-10-17 12:09:55
After several years of decline in the unemployment rate in France, the end of 2023 should put a brake on this trend. This rate, which was at its lowest in four decades, will experience an inversion of the curve.
Indeed, after the lackluster reports on the employment situation in France from the Banque de France and INSEE, it is the turn of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) to darken its forecasts for months to come. This organization provides that “ the second half of the year 2023, but especially the year 2024 » know a “ reversal of the unemployment curve “. It is therefore expected that the employment dynamic that France has experienced since Emmanuel Macron’s first mandate will come to an end.
The OFCE forecasts, published this Tuesday, October 17, indicate that “ during the first half of 2023, job creation remained dynamic (+172,000 jobs created), but a slowdown began in the second quarter.. In the same report, the OFCE adds that “ the second half of the year 2023, but especially the year 2024, would be those of the reversal of the unemployment curve, the latter going from 7.2% currently to 7.9% at the end of next year in a context of marked increase in the active population due to the implementation of the pension reform”.
The unemployment curve will reverse at the end of 2023 and in 2024
The said observatory estimates that “ the weak growth in activity and the partial recovery of past productivity losses would overcome the strong dynamism of employment observed in recent years “. The end of the year will therefore be gloomy in terms of employment, according to the OFCE, which also predicts the continuation of this trend in 2024.
The year 2024 “ would be the year of falling inflation (3.3% on annual average and 2.3% year-on-year at the end of the year), but growth would remain modest (0.8%) due to the full materialization of the effects of increases in key interest rates”, warns the OFCE. According to his assessment, “ the effect of monetary policy would reduce GDP growth by -0.9 points in 2024 (after -0.4 points in 2023)”. Figures which do not agree with those of the government, which expects 1.4% growth in gross domestic product, while the Bank of France forecasts 0.9%.
Moreover, ” despite the reduction in exceptional budgetary measures, the public deficit would remain at 4.8% of GDP in 2023 and 2024 mainly due to sluggish growth which would weigh on tax revenuess”, warns the OFCE, estimating that global growth will slow, going from 3.2% in 2022 to 2.3% in 2024. This decline “ will result in an increase in the unemployment rate in most industrialized countries,” concludes the organization.
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