2023-09-03 02:59:21
September 1: 64.2%.
That’s the percentage of Journal readers who chose New Mexico football to win more than 3.5 games this season, something that hasn’t happened since the Lobos won nine games in 2016.
Which means there’s at least some degree of optimism heading into the fourth year of the Danny Gonzales era: about a new attack with lots of new faces. Key returners play an important role in defense. The idea is that either the program is going in the right direction or things can’t be worse than they were.
And that means it’s probably time for the Journal to make its own prediction. Here’s an inaccurate game-by-game prediction from UNM football writer Sean Reider:
September 2 at Texas A&M
It’s the one game of the year the Lobos really shouldn’t be playing. A&M is definitely bigger. Faster. Stronger. Top-notch talent in all areas who should be able to play like this, the type that creates these mountainous expectations year after year.
But I think there are a few records where that doesn’t quite seem to be the case. After all, A&M got into a bad habit of downplaying their opponents last season – as talented as they are, did the Aggies completely remove that from their system?
Prediction: The Aggies end up being overwhelmed, a certain overheated Journal reporter forgets to tweet the final score, and a late basket from Luke Drzewicki takes the Lobos to 1-0 ATS. Texas A&M 41, New Mexico 6
September 9 vs. Tennessee Tech
Back-to-back game I don’t like: A week after being rated on their ability to play against A&M, New Mexico will be rated on how they beat Tennessee Tech, an FCS team that didn’t have a winning record since. 2011.
Which, at least, someone thinks could change this year. The Golden Eagles got one (1) vote to win the Big South-OVC Conference.
Prediction: Two Tennessee natives get snaps at quarterback as Dylan Hopkins (Maryville, TN) leaves a blowout for DC Tabscott (Franklin, TN) and Devon Dampier to clean up. $350,000 well spent. New Mexico 38, Tennessee Tech 7
September 16 vs. New Mexico State
Let’s put aside the rivalry for a moment and not a second more: let’s appreciate that this should be one hell of a game of football. NMSU and UNM haven’t finished with winning records in the same season since 2002. It will take more than a little luck on both sides, but there is a not completely unreasonable path for this season to break that streak. .
Prediction: DJ Washington bursts out in force with three one-time touchdowns, but Pavie’s overtime heroics push the Aggies to a blowout win in a big game. NMSU 34, New Mexico 33 (3OT)
Sept. 23 at UMass
Whether they win or lose the previous week, this could end up being a pivotal game for the Lobos. Coming out of an emotional rivalry game? Check. A trip to Amherst, Massachusetts for the furthest continental road game in New Mexico’s 131-year football history? Check.
A UMass team led by Don Brown with decent parts and decidedly more guts than…maybe ever? Check.
Prediction: Christian Washington returns a kick for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to ensure UMass doesn’t go undefeated against the Land of Enchantment. New Mexico 30, UMass 17
September 30 in Wyoming
I was a bit surprised that Wyoming finished sixth in Mountain West’s preseason media poll, if only because that defense should be a burden. The Cowboys are firing 10 starters, including Mountain West preseason Defensive Player of the Year Easton Gibbs and a defensive line that could be the best in the league.
And stop me if you’ve heard this before – Wyoming has questions about the quarterback. Can Andrew Peasley provide the passing offense needed to simply complete their rushing offense, let alone defense?
Prediction: A perfectly normal football game turns into a complete and total stone fight. Wyoming 13, New Mexico 10
October 14 vs. San Jose State
Speaking of Hopkins, Gonzales has repeatedly mentioned that he is the second active quarterback in the conference by starts, behind none other than San Jose State’s Chevan Cordeiro. And aside from being the most established quarterback, Cordeiro might be his most talented, with Mountain West preseason Offensive Player of the Year honors to his name.
Prediction: Two veteran quarterbacks team up for a very entertaining duel, but a Chase Williams interception marks the turning point as the Spartans pull away in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. San Jose State 42, New Mexico 38
October 21 vs. Hawaii
The general consensus around Hawaii in the second year of the Timmy Chang era was that it would only take them another year. But a solid showing in a 35-28 loss to Vanderbilt in Week 0 suggests they could be closer than initially thought.
Prediction: Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schrager battles through a teeming defense for three touchdowns as the Warriors pull off a shock to send UNM on a three-game skid. Hawaii 24, New Mexico 20
October 28 in Nevada
What should be a long season in Reno will be in full swing when the Lobos get there in late October. Head coach Ken Wilson completed the Wolfpack with a string of transfers for Oregon, but an unexpected turnover in the coaching staff and a roster being rebuilt don’t prepare for a particularly rosy season for Nevada. .
Prediction: Tasked with making sure their season doesn’t spiral out of control, New Mexico pulls off an inspired and easier-than-expected win at Mackay Stadium. New Mexico 45, Nevada 10
Nov. 4 vs. UNLV
It raised some eyebrows at the time, but I understand and at least respect why the Las Vegas Aviators and UNLV broadcaster Matt Neverett picked the Rebels to win the Mountain West.
UNLV could get the best version of quarterback Doug Brumfield in new offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s ultra-fun Go-Go program. First-year head coach Barry Odom could develop a defense that lost its two best defenders but added some intriguing transfers from Power 5.
Together, this could form a very good team. But maybe that’s a bit too far.
Prediction: There is a high ceiling here. But the UNLV does not win the Mountain West. I think they end up being good enough to go to college and win. UNLV 32, New Mexico 24
Nov. 11 at Boise State
Is the State of Boise back to being… the State of Boise? All the signs mostly point to yes. Running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty have geared up for one of the league’s best rushing attacks while quarterback Taylen Green has all the tools to return the Broncos to their mid to late glory days of the 2000s.
Prediction: New Mexico’s defense is actually making life pretty tough for Green (one touchdown, two interceptions), but Boise’s fullbacks and an opportunistic defense make the difference. Boise State 28, New Mexico 17
Nov. 18 at Fresno State
Fresno State lost much of what fueled Mountain West’s title chase last season, namely quarterback Jake Haener and running back Jordan Mims. Their defense should still be close to this championship quality, however, with the return of seven starters.
Prediction: I don’t think the Bulldogs will be bad in the cellar this season. But I think it’s possible to lose too much and I think New Mexico is picking up a lot. New Mexico 31, Fresno State 20
Nov. 24 vs. Utah State
The Aggies New Mexico’s third group will play this season, Utah State has flown under the radar throughout the preseason. Head coach Blake Anderson is calling plays again for quarterback Cooper Legas and while the defense may improve up front, it remains strong in the secondary. Will that be enough for a rebound season?
Prediction: Key seniors Hopkins and cornerback Donte Martin go off on a high on a bright late November afternoon at College Stadium. New Mexico 24, Utah State 17
Final prediction
As you can probably tell, it’s a brutal team trying to predict. Because there is a world where things are going well: a defense considered more talented than last year’s come together and exploit that potential on the pitch. A brand new, improved offense in every position is playing better than the last two seasons. Complementary football returns to Albuquerque and significant steps are taken under the Gonzales era.
And as Lobo fans well know, there is a world where things go wrong. Terribly false. What happens if Hopkins is out for an extended period? Or if the defense took a step back as planned? The optimism in and around the program is warranted at this time. Will it be in November?
Like most things, I think it’s somewhere in between. This is a team that should be competing for New Mexico’s first playoff appearance since 2016 and I think they’re about to get there. A stop here, a few centimeters from winning the first bowl of the Gonzales era.
Without seeing them in a real, live game environment, I’m going to take over and attribute them to five wins – bad luck. And at the end of the day, that probably doesn’t mean much either.
See you Saturday.
2023-09-02 06:01:00
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