2023-09-11 14:55:00
This Monday concludes an unprecedented heat episode in the history of our country. For a week, we experienced an official heat wave (at least 25 degrees every day, including at least three at 30 degrees or more, Editor’s note) that was unprecedented: this had never happened in September in Belgium. “This is a completely exceptional and historic event, I repeat,” assures Pascal Mormal, meteorologist at IRM. It is difficult not to see an extraordinary sequence influenced by global warming, with 6 days at least 30 degrees and 4 daily records broken.”
To better understand the scope of these records, it is enough to look at the figures from the records established since 1892. “In September, we therefore arrive at a total of 22 days of heat (30 degrees or more) for a little over 130 years. Six were therefore observed this year. Between 2020 and 2022, we counted 3, plus one in 2016 and another in 2013.”
We are therefore at a total of 11 days out of the 22 in ten years, or half. “What used to happen every 10 years becomes the norm every year,” he breathes. We are going completely beyond the natural variability of the climate that we traditionally experience in Belgium.”
“Never seen before in Belgium”
For the first decade of September, we also pulverize – unsurprisingly – the average temperature, with 21.7 degrees, compared to 16.2 degrees over the period 1991-2020. “The problem is that we seem to get used to having heat waves like this in Belgium, as if it were normal. But this is not the norm. We have just experienced something exceptional and abnormal!”
Fortunately, this episode ends this Monday evening. “We are expecting a stormy deterioration which will affect the country in several episodes between this Monday evening and Wednesday morning. The good news is that the accumulations should not be too significant, even if we cannot exclude a more intense local episode. A priori, it is especially the south of the Sambre et Meuse furrow which will be the most affected.”
For the rest, we will return to seasonal temperatures, but it is not yet the time to talk about autumnal weather. “We will lose around ten degrees, but temperatures will remain above seasonal averages, with 22 or 23 degrees until the weekend. For Saturday and Sunday, the weather is still uncertain, with a risk of rain setting in.”
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