On April 26, 2022, the government decided on “comprehensive emergency measures” totaling 6.2 trillion yen in order to respond to rising prices due to high gasoline prices. However, looking at the decision process, the disagreements between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party often surfaced, and the content changed over and over again. Some people in the government have begun to say, “The life of the LDP-NKP is about to end.”
The collapsed LDP main scenario
The government and the ruling party are symbolizing the straying of the 2022 “mini” supplementary budget, which totals 2.7 trillion yen.
At a press conference on the night of April 26, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plausibly explained, “We will submit the supplementary budget to the Diet and establish it, and take all possible measures to protect the lives of the people in the event of any circumstances.”
However, J-CAST News Company Watch“‘Countermeasures against high prices’ instructed by Prime Minister Kishida … Can the supplementary budget be established in the current Diet session?As detailed in (April 8, 2022), neither the government nor the Liberal Democratic Party was initially willing to make a supplementary budget in the current Diet session.
Looking back a little, the Prime Minister instructed the Ministers to formulate “comprehensive emergency measures such as crude oil prices and rising prices” on March 29. The financial resources include the usual reserve fund of 500 billion yen that can be spent without the consent of the Diet, the reserve fund of 5 trillion yen for dealing with the new coronavirus, and the reserve fund of 5.5 trillion yen in total, which is the initial budget for FY2010. rice field.
The main scenario of the government and the LDP at this point is as follows.
First, we will formulate “comprehensive economic measures” that emphasize speed, such as measures against high gasoline prices. If the scale of the measures is kept within a few trillion yen, the expenditure of reserve funds will suffice. After appealing the response to the recent rise in prices through comprehensive measures, we will reconsider full-scale economic measures. We will use this as an appealing material for the ruling party in the Upper House election to win the victory and formulate a full-scale supplementary budget at the extraordinary Diet session in autumn.
As of the end of March, Sanae Takaichi, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party, stated that he was “not considering a supplementary budget.” Even within the party, the issue of financial resources was treated as “finished.”
There was also an underwater battle for leadership within the LDP, but aside from that, things changed completely because the coalition Komeito advocated a correction.
The Komeito said, “If the reserve fund is insufficient, it is the responsibility of the government” (Natsuo Yamaguchi), and continued to demand the preparation of a supplementary budget during the current Diet session. It is said that he wants to win the “war result” that “the supplementary budget was prepared by the Komeito’s efforts” for the upper house election.
“Mini” supplementary budget derived as a compromise
However, it was the Liberal Democratic Party that was in a hurry. If the Diet is to establish a supplementary budget, it will need to be deliberated by the Budget Committee. Naturally, it is certain that the opposition will come up with a counter-proposal that exceeds the government’s proposal and criticize the government’s proposal as inadequate, and it will bother to give the opposition the stage of criticism of the ruling party. It is equivalent to sending salt to the enemy for the Upper House election.
There have been cases in the past where a supplementary budget was set up in early spring, but the LDP has suffered a painful defeat in the national elections immediately after that. The Liberal Democratic Party executives were forced into a situation where they were caught in a board, as the “opposition to correction” argument arose, centered on those who were scheduled to run for the Upper House election.
As a result of continuing self-public consultations for about a month, the unprecedented move of the “mini” supplementary budget was derived as a compromise.
While making a face for the Komeito by formulating a supplementary budget during the current Diet session, if the contents are kept to a minimum such as the accumulation of reserve funds, the deliberation time in the Diet can be minimized, and the Komeito Party said, “Amendment in the current Diet session. You can get the “war result” of “establishment”. It can be said that it is a painstaking measure to maintain the coalition.
However, these details were reported in detail by the media, and the ironic result was that the opposition party was “privately privatized” and gave the administration a source of attack.
The shikori left between the self and the public is also large. A LDP official said, “If the ruling party’s vote does not grow in the upper house election, it will impose responsibility. It is undeniable that the coalition may be cracked.”
What the “mini” supplementary budget reflects may be the “limit” of the LDP-NKP that was tied up for elections. (Journalist Toshiro Shirai)