British Columbia Premier David Eby departs this Saturday for a five-day trade mission to China, marking the first high-level Canadian provincial visit to Beijing since 2022. The trip—covering Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou—comes as Canada-China relations remain frozen over detentions, trade disputes, and Beijing’s crackdown on Vancouver’s Chinese-Canadian community. Here’s why it matters: Eby’s mission tests Canada’s fragmented approach to China policy, where Ottawa’s hardline stance clashes with regional economic interests.
Why this matters to the world
China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner after the U.S., with $71.6 billion in bilateral trade last year—nearly 10% of B.C.’s total exports. Yet Ottawa’s refusal to extradite Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and Beijing’s retaliatory measures have strained ties. Eby’s visit risks exposing a rift between federal and provincial priorities: while Ottawa prioritizes human rights and national security, B.C.’s tech and energy sectors—from lithium batteries to LNG—depend on Chinese demand. The mission could either thaw relations or deepen Canada’s diplomatic isolation.
How China’s economic leverage shapes Eby’s agenda
China’s appetite for Canadian resources is undiminished. Last year, Beijing imported $45 billion in Canadian goods, with B.C. supplying 40% of that—primarily copper, aluminum, and forestry products. But the trip’s success hinges on three unresolved issues:
- Lithium and critical minerals: B.C. hosts 90% of Canada’s lithium reserves, vital for China’s electric vehicle push. A 2025 deal between Tesla and a Quebec mine shows how provincial deals can bypass federal restrictions.
- LNG exports: China’s Pacific NorthWest LNG project, stalled by regulatory hurdles, could restart if Eby secures Chinese investment guarantees.
- Financial sector access: Chinese banks like ICBC and Bank of China have pulled back from Canadian deals since 2022, costing B.C. $2.3 billion in lost investment.
Here’s the catch: Ottawa’s 2023 critical minerals strategy restricts sales to China unless Beijing meets human rights standards—a condition Beijing dismisses as interference.
The geopolitical tightrope: Canada’s divided China policy
Eby’s visit underscores Canada’s fragmented approach. While federal Trade Minister Mary Ng pushes for a limited trade dialogue, premiers like Alberta’s Danielle Smith have openly criticized Ottawa’s China stance. “We can’t afford to let politics dictate our economy,” Smith told The Globe and Mail last month.
China’s response will reveal its priorities. If Eby returns with deals on lithium or LNG, Beijing signals it values economic ties over ideological alignment. But if negotiations stall, Canada risks further isolation—especially as the U.S. and EU tighten their own China policies.
Expert take: “This is a test of Canada’s sovereignty”
“Eby is walking a fine line,” says Dr. Yanmei Xie, a China-Canada trade expert at the University of British Columbia. “Provincial governments have always had more flexibility, but this time, the stakes are higher. If Ottawa blocks any deals, it could set a dangerous precedent for other provinces.”
Meanwhile, Ambassador John McCallum, Canada’s former China envoy, warns that Eby’s trip may backfire. “China doesn’t negotiate with provinces—only with the federal government,” McCallum told CTV News. “If Eby overpromises, Ottawa could reject the agreements, leaving B.C. exposed.”
What happens next: Three possible outcomes
1. Limited economic deals: Eby secures non-strategic trade agreements (e.g., forestry, tourism) but avoids critical minerals or energy. Result: Temporary relief for B.C. exporters, but no shift in federal policy.
2. Diplomatic thaw: Beijing signals openness to federal-provincial coordination on trade. Result: A test case for Canada-China relations, but no immediate breakthrough.
3. Escalation: China retaliates against B.C. exports (e.g., tariffs on seafood or lumber) or detains Canadian businesspeople. Result: A deepening rift between Ottawa and Victoria.
Global ripple effects: Who gains and who loses?
| Entity | Potential Gain | Potential Risk |
|---|---|---|
| China | Access to Canadian lithium and LNG at discounted rates | Further alienating Ottawa, strengthening U.S.-Canada alignment |
| Canada (Federal) | Leverage over provincial autonomy in trade policy | Loss of $3B+ in annual trade if Beijing imposes retaliatory tariffs |
| B.C. (Provincial) | New investment in LNG and critical minerals | Ottawa blocking deals, leaving B.C. economically vulnerable |
| U.S. | Canada’s divided stance weakens China’s North American foothold | Disrupted supply chains if Canada-China tensions escalate |
The bigger picture: Canada’s China dilemma
Eby’s mission is more than a trade trip—it’s a referendum on Canada’s China strategy. With the U.S. and EU tightening restrictions on Chinese tech and rare earths, Canada faces a choice: double down on ideological alignment with Washington or prioritize economic pragmatism. The answer may lie in a middle path: targeted engagement on critical minerals while maintaining pressure on human rights. But as Dr. Xie notes, “China doesn’t do half-measures. If Eby doesn’t deliver, the relationship will stay frozen.”
Final thought: What’s at stake for global supply chains?
China’s demand for Canadian resources is non-negotiable—even as geopolitical tensions rise. If Eby’s trip fails, Beijing may accelerate deals with Australia or Chile, leaving Canada as a marginal supplier. But if it succeeds, it could set a precedent for other provinces to bypass federal restrictions. The question isn’t whether Canada will engage with China—it’s whether it can do so without fracturing its own unity.
Here’s the takeaway: Watch for three signals in the coming weeks. First, whether Beijing announces any new trade agreements. Second, if Ottawa publicly endorses or rejects Eby’s deals. And third, how Chinese state media frames the visit—hawkish rhetoric could mean deeper isolation for Canada.
One thing’s certain: This trip won’t resolve Canada’s China dilemma. But it will reveal whether the country’s economic and diplomatic priorities can coexist—or if one must yield to the other.
