2023-11-03 12:53:09
(Washington) Job creation slowed more than expected in October in the United States, due in particular to the historic strike at the three major American automobile manufacturers, and the unemployment rate is up slightly, to 3.9 %.
In October, 150,000 jobs were created, less than the 175,000 expected by analysts, and half as many as in September, the Labor Department announced Friday.
“Employment fell in the manufacturing industry due to the strike,” the press release said.
The three major American automobile manufacturers – General Motors, Ford and Stellantis – experienced an unprecedented six-week strike, which is now coming to an end, after agreements in principle reached with the UAW union.
Employees on strike over the entire period taken into account are not counted as employees, Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY Parthenon, told AFP on Thursday. These are 33,000 of the more than 45,000 strikers who added to the unemployment figures.
The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 point, to 3.9%.
President Joe Biden, who is seeking a second term in the White House, welcomed an unemployment rate “below 4% for 21 months in a row, the longest period in more than 50 years”.
Historically low unemployment
“Employment growth remains positive, wages are slowing and the unemployment rate is near historically low levels,” summarized Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for HFE, in a note.
But she expects “the labor market to relax and economic activity to slow over time in response to restrictive monetary policy” from the central bank, the Fed, she said. precise.
Because the slowdown in the job market goes hand in hand with that of inflation. The United States has experienced a significant labor shortage for more than two years, which has sent wages soaring, contributing to rising prices.
To combat it, the Fed is pushing on rates to slow down consumption. However, she left them unchanged on Wednesday, as during her previous meeting in September.
“The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to balance,” noted Fed President Jerome Powell on Wednesday during a press conference.
“Reducing inflation will likely require […] some easing of labor market conditions,” he warned.
The figures published Friday point in this direction, underlines Lydia Boussour, economist for EY, “with a marked slowdown in hiring, a slowdown in wage growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a shorter work week”.
Persistent shortages
Employers, however, still encounter difficulties in recruiting.
“If every unemployed person in the country found a job, we would still have about 3 million jobs available,” noted Stephanie Ferguson, employment manager at the US Chamber of Commerce, in a study published mid -october.
These difficulties still worry businesses, both because of “increasing labor costs” and shortages, showed the survey on activity in services published Friday by the professional federation ISM.
“Labor shortages are more persistent” than in 2019, Nela Richardson, chief economist of the business services firm ADP, also commented on Wednesday: when a sector recruits less, “it is difficult to know” if it is “because companies are hiring less or because they cannot find workers”.
The labor market has, however, seen, since the summer, an influx of new workers, “both due to (increase in) participation in the labor market and immigration”, welcomed Jerome Powell on Wednesday, which “partly explains why the GDP (gross domestic product editor’s note) is so high”.
Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States actually doubled in the third quarter, to 4.9% at an annualized rate.
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