U.S. Economic growth slowed considerably at the close of 2025, with the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rising at an annualized rate of just 1.4 percent, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The figure significantly underperformed expectations and represents a marked deceleration from the previous quarter’s pace.
The White House attributed the slowdown, in part, to the impact of a 43-day government shutdown initiated by Democrats last fall. Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai stated that the shutdown “deliberately blunted our economic momentum” and “cost the American people meaningful growth.” The administration maintains that even with this disruption, 2025 GDP growth “smashed” predictions from the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Budget Office and the International Monetary Fund.
Prior to the official release of the GDP data, President Donald Trump signaled on his Truth Social platform that the numbers would be weaker than anticipated, specifically citing the Democrat shutdown as a contributing factor, claiming it cost the U.S. “at least two points in GDP.”
The deceleration in growth comes despite ongoing efforts by the Trump administration to stimulate the economy through tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and policies aimed at increasing energy production. The White House asserts that these measures are attracting trillions in investment and will accelerate economic growth in 2026. According to Desai, robust private sector-led economic growth continues, with strong consumption and investment.
However, analysis from FactCheck.org indicates that the Trump administration has a pattern of “overselling” recent U.S. Economic growth. The organization has previously scrutinized claims made by the White House regarding inflation and GDP figures.
The slowdown follows a year where the U.S. Economy experienced fluctuating performance under President Trump. Data from The Economist shows that, 396 days into his second term, GDP changed at an unspecified rate per year in the second quarter, with inflation also at an unspecified rate. The S&P 500 remained flat since he took office.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned in October 2025 that the government shutdown could “hit the GDP, a hit to growth, and a hit to working America.” The Council of Economic Advisers also issued an analysis indicating the shutdown would have “wide-ranging economic effects that reduce American prospects through lower growth.”
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release a second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP in late March, which may provide further insight into the factors contributing to the slowdown.
