The probability that the US economy will fall into recession within a year is gradually increasing.
According to the latest monthly economist survey conducted by Bloomberg, the probability of a recession in the next year is 30%, the highest level since 2020. The increase from April, which was 27.5%, is modest, but it has doubled compared to just three months ago. This survey was conducted from May 6th to 11th, and responses were received from 37 economists.
Recession Risk
The chance of a recession in the next 12 months is steadily growing
Source: Bloomberg
Concerns about recessions have increased in recent weeks. Inflation has been at its highest level in decades and is likely to remain high for the long term. US monetary authorities are determined to quickly curb inflation by aggressively raising rates, but face the difficult task of curbing inflation while avoiding recessions.
Original title:Odds of a US Recession Within Next Year Now 30%, Survey Shows(excerpt)