Venezuela did not fix itself, but its economy seems to be improving. There is more cash – in dollars and bolívares – circulating, hyperinflation has ended and stores are more stocked after just a couple of years ago they lived in the midst of scarcity and despair.
Consumption is being reactivated, nightlife has returned to the point that in Caracas there are nightclubs with cards in dollars that could be in another country on the continent – with a more buoyant economy – and the estimates of economic growth from instances such as the Fund Monetary and Celag mark positive for 2022.
Apparently, the economic miracle, after registering a hyperinflation of 3,000%, seems to be giving signs such as the revival of international concerts. For the sample, a button: Il Divo was presented in Caracas this last week of May and in the musical pages there are rumors of other events in the country.
“Some people have come out to say ‘Venezuela has already been fixed.’ No, it has not been fixed. It is getting better. Venezuela has improved, Venezuela is going to improve, it is going to grow. But there is still a lot to do, and we have to make an effort to do it”. That phrase, pronounced in April by Nicolás Maduro himself, could describe part of what is happening in the Latin American nation.
The country has not fixed itself, as Maduro himself acknowledges, but there are signs of changes that are felt, above all, by the richest classes, while those in the lowest rung continue to experience the onslaught of an environment that is going to media machine, in which the income of 48.4% of Venezuelans depends on rummage, according to figures from the Ecoanalítica firm.
Barely 26.5% of the inhabitants of Venezuela have a formal job. In this context, remittances and pensions continue to play an important role in the economy to put bolivars –and dollars– into circulation.
In any case, the post-pandemic and the war in Ukraine due to the invasion of Russia opened a window of opportunity for the finances of the regime, which has had rapprochements with Joe Biden’s house, is allowing investments in companies that were bankrupt and sees entry more merchandise due to the import subsidy.
The United States will allow Chevron to negotiate the license it has with Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). This does not mean that the exchange of crude oil with that country has been activated again, in embargo since 2019, but it is a route for the sector’s negotiations to be reopened.
Even so, obtaining dollars in Venezuela legally is not that simple because those interested must go through a process of banking cash in that currency to withdraw the physical money from accounts abroad. Of course, this point is foreign to the parallel dollar that circulates irregularly.
In the opinion of the economist Asdrubal Oliveros, it is “impossible to think of a sustained recovery of the Venezuelan economy with a collapsed State and without the capacity to generate adequate public policies, especially in education and health.” For now, and at least temporarily, small changes in the dynamics of people are taking place.
Econalítica estimates that the cost of living in Venezuela will rise 42% by the end of 2022, a number that will continue to put pressure on Venezuelans’ pockets, but at a much lower level than that of the last seven years, which ended up generating a migration of six million people