2023-11-24 19:58:00
If he is used to blackmailing to obtain what he wants from the European Union – often money and tolerance towards its authoritarian drift – the Hungarian’s attitude seems to take on a whole new dimension. . The tone is more vehement, the discourse more ideological and focused as ever on the geopolitical choices of the EU… More than obtaining the approximately 28 billion euros of community funds blocked due to the trampling of the rule of law by Isn’t his government, Viktor Orban, pursuing another objective this time?, we wonder in Brussels. Namely to stop the European political machine and put pressure to shape the Union (a little) more to its liking?
“The winds of change are here!”, rejoiced Viktor Orban on X on Wednesday, applauding the victory of Geert Wilders, an Islamophobic, anti-European and pro-Russian figure, in the Dutch elections.
In power since 2010, the Hungarian Prime Minister has long dreamed of imposing his illiberal and reactionary vision of the EU: federalism at a minimum, all the power of the States, not being too encumbered with respect for human rights – again less than those of migrants – and fundamental values, such as the rule of law and democracy. And as far as foreign policy is concerned, don’t have any qualms about being friends with a bloodthirsty dictator, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Viktor Orban heckled: “While Hungarians are dying at the front, you are talking to the person who is responsible for their deaths”
A succession of provocations
Viktor Orban did not hesitate to shake hands with the master of the Kremlin at the end of October, thus becoming the first European leader to make such a gesture since the start of the war in Ukraine. But if some expressed their anger, the other member states once again ended up minimizing this unprecedented mistrust, rehashing the antiphon according to which “despite its usual show, Budapest has always joined unanimous decisions to help Kiev”.
Except that Hungary’s provocations have multiplied. On October 26, Viktor Orban openly opposed the Commission’s proposal to revise the 2021-2027 European budget to include in particular 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine. A subject that the Twenty-seven hope to close in December… Same reaction when the European executive proposed to the Member States to open accession negotiations with Kiev (and Chisinau) – again with the idea that the decision be taken unanimously in December. “Ukraine is in no way ready,” responded the Hungarian Prime Minister.
To crown this sequence, last week he sent a letter to Charles Michel, demanding, during the European summit, a “frank and open discussion on the feasibility of the EU’s strategic objectives in Ukraine”. “Do we still consider these goals achievable? […] How do we design the security architecture of Europe after the war?”, he continues in this document, revealed by the Politico website.
Ukraine as priority
Last Tuesday, Charles Michel went to kyiv, where he was able to see how progress in the accession process was dear to the Ukrainians. But he also had to keep expectations in check, given the uncertainty posed by Hungary’s attitude. It is therefore to try to understand Viktor Orban and know (literally) the price to pay to avoid a political failure at the European summit – or worse: a general questioning of support for Ukraine – that Charles Michel goes to Budapest .
Viktor Orban’s frustration is undoubtedly primarily linked to the fact that Hungary has still not received its 22 billion cohesion funds and 6.5 billion euros in subsidies for economic recovery. The person concerned argues that his government adopted this summer the reforms required to restore the independence of the Hungarian justice system and release this aid. But these changes are only cosmetic, experts warn.
Faced with Charles Michel in kyiv, Ukraine in a hurry to move forward on the path to the EU: “As Eminem says, success is the only opportunity we have”
What about the rule of law in Hungary then?
In any case, from the EU point of view, the question is no longer whether these reforms are effective, but whether unfreezing a large part of these funds could “call” Viktor Orban. The Commission also released 900 million euros of funds on Thursday for energy projects in Hungary, a decision interpreted as a first gesture of goodwill. And it would also be preparing to soon give Budapest access to 13 billion euros in cohesion funds.
“This will be proof that neither the Member States nor the Commission have a strategy to manage Orban,” sighs a European source. What the Hungarian Prime Minister understood well. As proof, while he had until now kept a low profile to recover his European funds, his government returned to controversial bills, proposing on November 21 a text to criminalize foreign financing of political parties and create a NGO monitoring authority.
An approach which is part of a campaign for the “protection of the sovereignty” of Hungary. And which also involves posters demonizing the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, plastered all over the country…
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