The Unseen Battlefield: How Infrastructure is Becoming the Front Line of 21st-Century Conflict
Cyberattacks, sabotage, and the weaponization of critical infrastructure are no longer hypothetical scenarios – they’re today’s reality. Consider this: a single ransomware attack can cripple fuel distribution across an entire coastline, while a coordinated cyber campaign can quietly paralyze essential services. This is not the future; it’s happening now, demanding a fundamental rethinking of how we approach national security.
The Shift to Disruption: Beyond Kinetic Warfare
Traditional military doctrines emphasize kinetic force – the projection of overwhelming physical power. However, the landscape of conflict is evolving. Today’s adversaries, both state and non-state actors, recognize the effectiveness of infrastructure disruption. It’s cheaper, deniable, and often achieves disproportionate impact. This shift prioritizes breaking continuity and eroding trust rather than causing widespread physical destruction. A cut fiber optic cable can cripple supply chains. A GPS spoofing attack can ground aircraft. A corrupted DNS entry can do more to undermine public trust than any propaganda campaign.
Chokepoints and the Vulnerabilities of Modern Systems
Our modern reliance on efficiency and scale has inadvertently created a network of chokepoints, making our systems vulnerable. These chokepoints exist in various forms: cloud ecosystems, energy corridors, undersea cables, and satellite constellations. Consider the dependence on a single launch provider for vital space operations, or the fragility of global communications dependent on vulnerable undersea cables. These points of failure are often invisible until they are exploited, with potentially devastating consequences.
A Doctrine of Resilience: Building a Stronger Defense
To counter these emerging threats, the West must adopt a “Doctrine of Resilience.” This requires a strategic shift that prioritizes redundancy, diversification, and the ability to degrade gracefully under attack. It’s not about preventing every attack; it’s about ensuring systems can absorb shocks and continue functioning effectively even when compromised.
Building a Resilient Future: Actionable Steps
Implementing this doctrine means taking concrete steps. First, diversify critical dependencies. Avoid relying on single points of failure for internet access, cloud services, or data exchange. Second, map and understand chokepoints. Identify the vulnerabilities within critical infrastructure and simulate potential disruptions to assess the impact. Third, implement resilient-by-design architectures. Consider models like Estonia’s “digital twin,” which offers a blueprint for mirroring essential state functions in secure, offshore environments. Finally, integrate resilience into alliances. NATO and the EU need to go beyond traditional defense and build shared risk maps, failover protocols, and decentralized defense capabilities, including infrastructure and cyber security.
The Role of Friction in Modern Deterrence
In this new paradigm, strategic deterrence relies on resilience and survivability. Systems designed to withstand attacks don’t simply fail. Instead, they resist, reroute, and absorb the shocks. This resilience, this *friction*, is power. It’s the key to maintaining continuity and legitimacy in the face of emerging threats. The Council on Foreign Relations has explored various elements of infrastructure defenses that bolster a nation’s ability to withstand attacks.
We’re living in the early stages of a new form of warfare, one fought not just on the battlefield but in the digital and physical infrastructure that underpins our societies. By prioritizing resilience, redundancy, and strategic diversification, we can build a future where disruption is met with resistance, and continuity remains the ultimate defense.
Do you think your organization is prepared for the threats ahead? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
