2023-05-11 13:59:15
A decline in job creation and a rise in the unemployment rate are expected to manage to curb high inflation, fueled, among other things, by the significant growth in wages linked to the lack of manpower.
Weekly jobless claims in the United States climbed in early May, for the third week in a row, reaching their highest level since October 2021, seeming to signal that the job market is starting to slow, after showing surprising strength. in April.
In the first week of May, 264,000 people filed for unemployment after job loss, up 22,000 from the previous week, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department.
These figures tend to show a “easing of the conditions of the labor market”, commented Nancy Vanden Houten, economist for Oxford Economics, in a note.
An unemployment rate of 5.3% at the start of 2024
It predicts “that jobless claims will continue to rise as the economy weakens and experiences a mild recession in the second half, with more significant layoffs.”
It also expects the unemployment rate to rise over the year, peaking at around 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024.
Unemployment claims had remained exceptionally low for a year and a half, below 300,000 entries per week, while the country is experiencing a significant shortage of manpower.
The job market in the United States had unexpectedly rebounded in April, with 253,000 jobs created, against 165,000 in March, and an unemployment rate falling to 3.4%, its lowest level since 1969.
A decline in job creation and a rise in the unemployment rate are however expected to manage to curb the high inflation, fueled, among other things, by the significant growth in wages linked to the lack of manpower.
The US central bank (Fed), in order to slow down inflation for a long time, has been raising its rates for a year. This leads the banks to raise the cost of the loans they offer to households and companies, to weigh on consumption and investment, and put an end to the escalation in prices.
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