Western officials have warned of the possibility of Belarus joining its ally Russia in the war on Ukraine, stressing that there are actual movements inside Belarus as evidence of this.
“It is increasingly likely that Belarus will intervene in the conflict,” a NATO military official told CNN.
The official, who asked not to be identified, added, “Russian President Vladimir Putin needs support. Anything that would help.”
A source in the Belarusian opposition told the American network that the Belarusian combat units are ready to go to Ukraine as soon as possible during the next few days, with thousands of troops preparing for deployment.
The source argues that this will have less of a military impact than it would geopolitically, given the implications of another country joining the war.
“justify the attack”
A senior NATO intelligence official said separately that the alliance’s assessments indicate that the Belarusian government is “creating the environment to justify its army’s attack on Ukraine.”
Russia had launched its attack on Ukraine in part from the territory of Belarus, and thousands of Russian soldiers were mobilized in Belarus before the Kremlin invaded Ukraine last month, and the two countries justified the presence of the forces at that time for conducting joint exercises.
US and European sanctions in response to the war have targeted officials from Russia and Belarus, including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Minsk moved to change its constitution last month to allow the country to permanently host both Russian forces and nuclear weapons, although US officials confirmed to CNN that they had yet to see any evidence of Russia moving or preparing for nuclear weapons.
Destabilization”
The sources confirmed that there are no indications so far that Belarus is currently participating in the fighting in Ukraine, and a senior US defense official said that the US Department of Defense had not seen “any indications that the Belarusians are preparing to move to Ukraine or that they have concluded any agreements to do so.”
The NATO military official indicated that a final decision still had to be taken in Moscow on Belarus’ participation in the war, adding: “So far, there has been no indication that Belarusian forces are participating in the fighting in Ukraine.”
“It is not about what Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko wants. The question is: Does Putin want another unstable country in the region?”, adding that “intervention would destabilize Belarus.”
The official did not explain how Belarus could interfere in the war, but said it was logical for Russia to try to cut off NATO military aid to Ukraine from its western border.