As we can see, with a few percent of Russian gas in Belgian gas consumption, dependence on this supplier is quite low.
In the short term, according to Fluxys, if the Russian tap were to close, Belgium would have the capacity to “take relatively quick action”through its multiple connections and entry points, “within two or three hours, without this having an impact on the price”, reassures Laurent Remy of Fluxys. This is for the very short term, to cover immediate needs.
Difficulties could come from other European countries. Some of them are much more dependent on Russian gas. In Europe, 40% of the gas consumed comes from Russia. In Germany, for example, 66% of imported gas comes from Russia. If these important buyers of Russian gas had to find alternatives from other suppliers, this would weigh on the markets. “Even if we don’t import a lot of Russian gas, it could have consequences at the market level and the volatility that it can bring to the market level”believes Francesco Contino, professor, specialist in energy issues at UCLouvain.
Tensions on prices cannot therefore be ruled out, even if, in the opinion of several specialists, it is still too early to say so. “To say that what is happening in Ukraine will automatically create an exponential and explosive price increase is not yet fully guaranteed.“, estimates Francesco Contino, “especially since we are coming out of winter and that, suddenly, we will be able to benefit from the mild weather and lower gas consumption”.
A reduction in Russian gas deliveries to Europe would have consequences for the CREG, the Electricity and Gas Regulatory Commission, because gas prices are formed at European level in the form of quotations . “A halt in Russian gas deliveries would have a significant upward impact on prices as Russian gas accounts for 40% of gas imports into the EU”, believes Laurent Jacquet, Director of the Creg. The latter also draws attention to the fact that the quantities of gas to be imported from Russia could be greater in the future, to compensate for the scheduled end of gas deliveries from the Netherlands to Belgium, France and Germany.
As for the price of gas, market prices for delivery in the course of 2022 “have certainly increased by around 10% today compared to yesterday and currently stand at around 80 euros/MWh for the month ahead (delivery next month)”emphasizes Laurent Jacquet, “but we are still far from the peak of 180 euros/MWh reached on December 21, 2021”, he adds, while noting that “the current tensions are however having an upward effect on the price of gas”.
On the other hand, nothing makes it possible to affirm, at this stage, that the Russian gas valve will close completely. It was in any case the point of view defended a few days ago by Adel El Gammal, expert in the geopolitics of energy, professor at the polytechnic school of the ULB and secretary general of the European Alliance for Research energy. “Europe accounts for 70% of Russian gas exports. It is an absolutely essential manna and the country cannot do without it in the long term.“, he believed, questioned by the RTBF. However, the expert did not rule out that Russia would supply less gas and not meet Europe’s demand for additional supplies.