What disease are Thai stocks suffering from? In 10 years foreigners sell for 975 billion baht.

2024-01-28 08:11:01

Kasikorn Securities released figures of foreigners selling “Thai stocks” for 10 years for 975 billion baht. In addition, it was found that they sold net for 8 years in a row, due to the company’s profits not growing. household debt problems, political unrest, lost investment, an aging population and loss of competitive advantage in exports of industrial goods.

Kasikorn Securities has published an analysis today (January 28) that foreign investors have been net sellers in the Thai stock market at 975 billion baht over the past 10 years or since 2013 and still have seller status. net in the next 8 years from the past 10 years

The market predicts several reasons such as household debt problems, political unrest, lost investment, an aging population and loss of competitive advantage in exports of industrial products.

Just like thatKasikorn Securities’ analysis department has the same opinion. But it is believed that the main reason that caused foreign investors to sell Thai stocks was the lack of net profit growth.

However, Bloomberg consensus expects market EPS (Thai listed company profits) to be 88 baht in 2013 and 85 baht in 2023, or indicating steady growth over the past 10 years.

Meanwhile, the SET Index has moved sideways between 1,000-1,800 points over the past 10 years, compared to the current level of 1,380 points, which is causing foreign investors to sell Thai stocks and invest in other markets with Better growth prospects to earn higher returns

Kasikorn Securities believes that foreign investors will continue to sell Thai stocks in the first half of this year for 4 reasons.

downside to net profit in 2024, resulting from the global economic slowdown

Weak consumption

The number of Chinese tourists is recovering slowly.

The government was unable to issue policies to stimulate the economy as expected.

However, it is expected that the market growth trend in the second half of this year will be better than in the first half as the government is expected to pass the draft budget for 2024 and the Fed pivot will start to increase costs, which will result in lower interest costs and Add liquidity to the market

Kasikorn Securities’ analysis stated at the end that it raised hope by expecting that Foreign investors will stop trading and may start accumulating Thai stocks when market EPS recovers, which happened before in 2016 and 2022.

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