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When referring to the Fed’s Blackout Period, that doesn’t mean “blackout” as it usually means. And why does this period always exist before every monetary policy meeting?
“Blackout Period” or “Blackout Period” of US Federal Reserve (Fed) It doesn’t mean “lights out” for sure. It was a period of silence. refrain from commenting refraining from giving news to officials Ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting, (Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC abbreviation) each time, which the first meeting of this year 2023 falls on 31 Jan.-1 Feb.
And now Fed officials It has begun to refrain from commenting on monetary policy (Blackout Period), in accordance with Fed regulations.
Fed regulations prohibit Fed officials from making public comments. or interviews about monetary policy during a Blackout Period, typically beginning the second Saturday before the Fed’s monetary policy meeting (FOMC) and ending on the Thursday after the FOMC meeting.
for The Fed’s Blackout Period of 2023 It has been defined as follows:
- 21 Jan.-2 Feb.
- Date 11-23 Mar.
- 22 Apr. – 4 May.
- Date 3-15 Jun.
- Date 15-27 Jul.
- Date 9-21 Sep.
- 21 Oct.-2 Nov.
- Date 2-14 Dec.
Although the staff has already refrained from commenting but before Investors gave almost 100% weight in the forecast. The Fed will only raise interest rates by 0.25% in its upcoming meeting. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both indicate that US inflation has peaked.
Recently, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that investors weigh 99.8% that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.50-4.75% at its Jan. 31-Feb. This gives only 76.7% weight.
lean key index numbers The US inflation peak is over.
The U.S. Department of Labor released the CPI, a measure of inflation on consumer spending, for December 2022, with all CPI figures in line with analyst expectations.
The headline CPI, which includes food and energy, rose 6.5 percent in December 2022 year on year. in line with analysts’ forecasts And it’s the “least” rate of increase compared to the year. Since October 2021
Month-on-month, the headline CPI fell 0.1% in December, in line with analysts’ expectations. and is the most decreasing month compared to the month Since April 2020 This is when the US economy faces lockdown measures to contain the spread of COVID-19.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 5.7 percent year on year in December. in line with the forecasted numbers Month-on-month, core CPI rose 0.3% in December, also in line with expectations.
In addition, the US Labor Department released the PPI, which gauges inflation on consumer spending for the month of December. 2023, the PPI figure was below analysts’ expectations and indicated that “US inflation has peaked.”
The headline PPI, which includes food and energy, rose 6.2 percent in December year on year. This was below analysts’ expectations of 6.8% after rising 7.3% in November. Month-on-month, the headline PPI fell 0.5% in December, while analysts had expected a 0.1% drop after rising 0.2% in November 2022.
The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 4.6 percent in December year on year. That slowed from 4.9% in November. Month-on-month, core PPI rose just 0.1% in December after rebounding 0.3% in November 2022.