2023-08-21 21:01:00
As you know, at the beginning of the 20th century, there was a massive transition from horse traction to cars with internal combustion engines. Now we are on the cusp of yet another transition: from traditional ICE vehicles to electric vehicles. During the transitional period, both old and new vehicles move in adjacent rows, but over time, the “old men” finally leave the road. Just look at the headlines in the media to understand who will have to leave now: “EU bans internal combustion engines from 2035”, “US plans to ban internal combustion engines”, “Britain will ban internal combustion engines even in hybrids as early as 2035” . This state of affairs upsets someone, pleases someone, but nothing can be done – progress.
Street traffic in London, early 20th century (image from standard.co.uk)
At the same time, the official position of many states and officials says that electric vehicles are an absolute blessing. The advantages of such machines include profitable operation, the possibility of obtaining benefits from the state, simplicity and ease of use, and the most important plus is environmental friendliness. I propose to look at these issues taking into account the global scale of electrification of transport (obvious problems like harm from batteries and charging difficulties will not be touched upon). As in the case of green energy (discussed in the article “Why green energy can do more harm than good?”), There are many questions about electric vehicles, and the conclusions may seem unexpected.
Let’s start with the simplest – the cheapness of “fuel”. Here, it would seem, everything is clear. Yes, one of the first articles on the Internet on this issue gives the following data:
100 km of travel by car with an internal combustion engine will cost from 400 to 1000 rubles (depending on fuel consumption); 100 km when charging from a household network with a single-rate tariff for households will cost from 80 to 100 rubles (and when using the “night tariff”, the figures are even less). Image from General Motors
It would seem a checkmate for gasoline cars. But not everything is so simple: when charging at the rates of “fast” charging terminals (namely, you will have to use them very often), you will have to pay 340-425 rubles for 100 km, which is already commensurate with traditional cars.
And now we are scaling the situation up to a general transition to electric traction. Millions of cars will become large consumers of electricity, the state will have to lay the foundation for the construction of new power plants, store fuel for them, increase the transmission capacity of transmission networks, build substations, and so on. Obviously, the financing of all these works will have to be included in the electricity tariff. At the same time, the “night rate” may even become higher than the day rate, since many drivers will only be able to charge at night and the load on the power grid will increase at this time of day.
As a result of these measures, “refueling” a car with electricity will become much more expensive than gasoline. And some grandmother, who has never had a car in her life, will be very surprised why the bill “for light” came, significantly exceeding her ability to pay.
The injustice of this situation will be aggravated by the fact that the cost of gasoline and other fuels includes fees that should be spent on the construction of road infrastructure and other needs of drivers. Approximately 30% of the cost of a liter of gasoline in Russia is mining and income taxes, and 21% is excises. If gasoline is abandoned, these fees will have to be included in the same electricity tariffs and scattered among other taxes, which will increase the financial burden on all categories of citizens. It turns out that our grandmother will pay for both the increased demand for electricity and excise taxes she does not need.
However, the main problem of electric transport is not entirely in tariffs. In the end, you can adapt to them, and the state will be able (or not be able) to introduce subsidies in this area and competently regulate everything. “So what is the main catch of the general transition to electric vehicles?”, You ask. Let’s figure it out.
Almost all of us have a relative or friend who owns a brand new car (our family has a Zhiguli over 30 years old), treats it with care, takes care of it and periodically uses it for trips to the country or fishing. Such drivers do not care about the presence of fashionable chips in the form of screens and backlighting, and the main indicator of the quality of a car is reliability and maintainability. The demand for such cars is quite high, there is also a supply, take a look at least on auto.ru:
Handsome “Moskvich 2140” 1983 release, the price of 500,000 rubles, traveled for 40 years and can do the same!
(image from auto.ru).
Now young readers, especially from large cities, will object: “Well, the author, you turned down. You write about junk for pensioners! The author will answer that the trend of caring for cars and extending their service life has been dominating all over the world in recent years. So, in the “automobile paradise” – the USA – in 1995, the average age of a passenger car (Passenger Cars) was 8.4 years, and already in the early 2000s this figure approached 10 years (data from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics). As follows from publications According to S&P Global Mobility, in 2023 the average age of the “average” American car reached 12.5 years, and the average age of a passenger car – 13.6 years. And this is only in rich America and what we managed to get out of official sources. In the process of working on this material, articles came across with much sharper differences in numbers, the situation in poor countries is especially sad. But even these official data are enough to fix the trend: the further, the longer the cars will have to drive.
Average age of cars of different types in the US (image from spglobal.com)
With a cursory glance at the statistics, you might think that cars used to be of poor quality and “died” earlier, but now the quality has reached unprecedented heights. However, this is not at all the case: in the well-fed 90s and 2000s, even a serviceable car was often handed over for recycling because it was out of fashion, and in recent crisis years, buyers are in no hurry to fork out for new models. The reason is simple – inflation, declining purchasing power and other economic difficulties. Considering the events of recent years — the pandemic, sanctions wars, a possible default in the United States — it is easy to guess that the life of cars will only increase and by 2030-2035 it can easily exceed 15 years. And here, as they say, watch your hands.
There are rich and reputable car corporations that can influence their power, there are boards of directors and shareholders who want only one thing – to increase profits. There are European and American officials who need to stimulate demand in order to launch production and replenish budgets, there are “unlucky” consumers who used to deposit money every 8 years, and soon you won’t wait for them even once every 15 years. There is a hyped topic with ecology. How to unite all this into one whole, so that everyone would be fine, and, as always, ordinary citizens would pay?
You already understood everything: we are creating a stir around electric vehicles, we are adopting norms to ban internal combustion engines until 2035, we are promoting the environment, we are selling vehicles running on “new energy”, we are getting money. We “forget” about problems with battery degradation even when the transport is idle. And no more 30-year-old Zhiguli and 40-year-old Muscovites, no more lifespans of 13.6 years – once every 5-8 years, the owner of an electric car will have to fork out and change the car (or its battery, which is comparable to the cost of buying a car now). Yes, another nice bonus for the manufacturer: the cost of an average electric car is higher than a traditional car, which means more income.
Also, electric vehicles help eliminate another nuisance for manufacturers – the secondary market. Previously, a car could leave its term in the USA or Europe, and then it was sold to Mexico or the CIS countries, where it was operated many times longer (and then went to countries that are even poorer). With electric vehicles, the option of buying a used car “for a penny” will not work – after the first service life, at least you will have to do a major overhaul with a battery replacement. Or buy a new car. Yes, it is expensive and unprofitable for poor buyers from developing countries, but manufacturers will really like it.
Image from auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com
Summing up, with bitterness we can conclude that all the inflated fuss around electric vehicles is only because of money, and the ecological screen is once again used to cover up this unsightly fact.
PS It is worth noting that the author of this material is not opposed to the introduction of electric transport, but only fears the restriction of the rights and freedoms of citizens in connection with this process. The author also anticipates a heated discussion in the comments and will try to answer all constructive questions and comments personally.
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