What the world can expect from the grueling conflict in 2024 – in the words of Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin:
Poor victories
Both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russia’s Putin had little good news for their own citizens and their allies after the war year of 2023.
Zelensky highlighted “a major victory” for the Ukrainian military in the Black Sea, where Kiev reported successful attacks on Russian warships and secured maritime trade routes. The Ukrainian president held his press conference against the backdrop of a large European Union flag. The EU states had previously agreed to start accession negotiations with Kiev.
Putin, for his part, survived an armed uprising by the Wagner mercenary group last year. He praised Russian society for rallying behind Moscow’s war effort. However, there are few alternatives: The Kremlin has passed a series of laws that prohibit any criticism of the offensive in the neighboring country.
Does the front line change?
Neither warring party has made significant progress on the battlefield over the past year. According to analysts, both Russia and Ukraine currently lack the resources to launch a serious offensive. Ukraine has been trying for some time to entrench itself along the front as effectively as the Russian forces and has advanced into Russian-controlled territory on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.
war of attrition
Ukraine has now admitted that a counteroffensive launched in the summer failed due to a lack of ammunition and air superiority. “We need support because we simply have no ammunition,” Zelensky noted, but declined to say more about his converted-to-defensive army’s plans for 2024.
For his part, Russian President Putin praised Russian troops for “improving” their position along much of the front. According to observers, Russian soldiers gained territory in the direction of the industrial center of Avdiivka in the east of the country.
War weariness in the West
Putin, whose re-election in the spring appears certain, is betting on the waning of Western support for Ukraine, which is the subject of political disputes in Europe and the United States. In his view, “this support is in danger of ending” and “it looks like it will end little by little”.
Zelenskyj, however, was convinced that the aid would continue and that the USA “will not betray” his country. However, he acknowledged that the presidential election in the United States, Ukraine’s main backer, could influence the course of the war.
Rebuilding armies
According to analysts, both sides are working to reorganize their military. Zelensky said Ukraine should build a million drones and boost domestic production of weapons and ammunition. The Ukrainian president initially rejected a request from the army to mobilize up to 500,000 new forces for the military.
Shortly before the election, Putin ruled out renewed mobilization for the coming year. According to him, Moscow recruited 486,000 volunteers last year. He also promised to strengthen Russia’s defense capabilities.
No negotiations
Zelensky has ruled out talks with Russia as long as Putin is in power. He also reiterated his goal of regaining control of all Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. There were no requests for talks from Moscow anyway. “I only see arrogance and murder in their rhetoric,” said Zelensky.
Putin repeatedly claims that Moscow is open to negotiations. But during his televised press conference, he said peace could only be achieved if Ukraine was “demilitarized” and “denazified.”
How does it end?
Almost two years after the Russian invasion and a few months before Russia’s presidential election, Putin again promised that “victory will be ours.” There will be peace “when we achieve our goals,” he added, without giving a time frame.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said “no one” knew when the fighting would end. He called on his compatriots not to lose their resilience.
