Thus, the dollar solidarity, which is sold officially in banks, with taxes and $200 daily limitclosed at $190.89 – without surcharges it was $115.69 – and the blue dollar bounced after two consecutive wheels without changes, according to a field survey in the Black Market of Currencies.
The informal dollar climbed $1 on the $202 at the wheel, but ended the week down 50 cents. DIn this way, the gap with the official dollar is 83%. So far in March, the parallel dollar is down $9 after ending last month at $211.
“The slide in the price of the dollar continues with a slight acceleration in March with an adjustment that until today is in the order of 2.7% compared to last month, already exceeding the record for February,” he clarified. Gustavo Quintana, of PR Exchange Brokers.
In recent weeks, the BCRA more than doubled the rate of devaluation compared to the beginning of the year, towards an annualized rate of around 45%. However, the increases still trail behind an expected inflation of 55%/60%.
“We believe that, given the dynamics that marks inflation, together with the political weakness of the government and the first disbursement from the IMF, the exchange rate will continue to fall behind, so we leave behind the scenario of discreet adjustment and /or accelerated official exchange rate, at least for the next 4 months”, projected in a report Martin Pole, Cohen’s chief strategist.
This Friday the Central Bank had to sell some US$20 million to meet the insufficient supply, and during the week it registered a negative result of almost US$100 millionwhich lower the positive accumulated for the month to about US$417 million.
“The expectations of surpassing in March with some ease the results of the previous months are being diluted by the combined effect of a greater demand and a rate of income somewhat lower than expected, surely influenced by negative signals for the agro-export complex generated from the latest measures adopted and those that have transpired for the sector,” said Quintana.
For the second quarter of the year, a higher foreign currency income is expected due to the gross liquidation of soybeans and corn, therefore, the monetary authority could take advantage of it to maintain the current “crawling peg” and avoid adding fuel to the fire of inflationary dynamics.
The Economist Rodolfo Santangelo He gave his opinion in dialogue with FM Milenium: “The Treasury receives the disbursements, the Treasury sells them to the Central Bank, the Central Bank issues against those special drawing rights that recompose the reserves. They cannot be used to control the dollar, they cannot be sold reserves to lower the cash with liqui”.
“The financial dollar always had the feeling that it was expensive. Argentina avoids panic. The 200 dollar is an expensive thing, what happens is that it is very high compared to the official one. The official 110 pesos is not that it is grossly behind , it could be better at 125, the 200 is very expensive, but the 200 is lowered with credibility, with a horizon, with a consistent economic policy, which is what we still do not have. The government is determined not to devalue the official price, to avoid a jump and continue with these periodic adjustments, which continue to run behind inflation, and that the gap decreases. The drop in the gap is still very modest, we are better a month ago, “he added.
For its part, Miguel Kiguel diagnosed that after the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the value of the official dollar will move “more or less in line with inflation”, while the latter variable will exceed the total of last year.
“The dollar had already escaped a lot when it went to 230 and then returned to levels of 200, which is far from being a summer”, the specialist summed up the “Dato sobre datos” program, on radio Milenium, about the evolution of the price of the US currency in recent months.
From his point of view, when the dollar reached $230, “I was very afraid that there would be no program with the Fund, that things would disband and that inflation would escape.”
Since the national Congress approved the program of extended facilities with the IMF more than a week ago, its price “dropped a little to $200 and interest rates also rose a lot,” a movement that “tends to stabilize the dollar,” he explained.
However, for Kiguel, the dollar will not fall below the ideal, which he stated is $120 or $130, because different factors indicate that “it will continue to move more or less in line with inflation.”
Finally, according to the economist Federico Glustein To iProfesional, “until now, it is observed that the rise in rates did not have a strong impact on the foreign exchange market, mainly on financial dollars, since in recent days a rise in the MEP and the CCL was observed, which again exceeded $200 And they have an uptrend.
Meanwhile, regarding the blue dollarconsiders that the influence is even less given that the fixed-term rate is still lower than inflation and is still not attractive for those who operate informally, although he explains that “we will only be able to analyze in more detail these days if there is a drop in demand as a consequence of the choice in financial instruments”.
This is due to the fact that the blue dollar is a market with different reaction times from that of the financial ones, however, it indicates that the rate increase is inclined to reduce liquidity, so, beyond the fact that it is not reflected the measure in a drop in the price of that dollar does reduce the chances of a jump from the blue, “except for the occurrence of some economic measure that stirs up the hornet’s nest.”