The predictions on the fifth wave established by the French establishment have proven to be correct so far. This Wednesday, February 16, the Institute published its models for the coming weeks.
There are reasons to be optimistic about Covid. The projections of the Institut Pasteur are rather encouraging with regard to the evolution of the epidemic in France.
It must be said that the models on the fifth wave of the epidemic published on December 27 by the Institut Pasteur were carried out on the whole.
Encouraging numerical projections
So the latter who are rather optimistic have something to cheer them up. And the projections for the coming weeks have been published this Wednesday, February 16
Indeed, the Institute expects a significant drop in hospital admissions in France. Daily hospitalizations could drop from 500 as of February 27, knowing that the figure rose to 1,570 on February 11, i.e. three times less.
For intensive care admissions, the same predictions could go from 200 to 70 per day.
Bed occupancy would drop from 17,000 to 8,000, and intensive care beds from 3,200 to 1,800, as reported The world.
Predictions from different data
The Institut Pasteur explains that this type of modeling is useful for “supporting the planning of hospital activities, it is therefore important to have projections to anticipate the short-term hospital needs of patients with Covid.”
Before specifying that “the production of such projections is a particularly difficult and uncertain exercise. It is therefore advisable to always consider with caution.”
These short-term projections are assessed on the basis of various data and in particular on the basis of several indicators, such as the number of positive cases, the percentage of people vaccinated, but also the health measures put in place, compliance with barrier gestures, etc. .