The experts of the World Health Organization are preparing responses to three possible evolutions of the covid-19 pandemic, two of them relatively optimistic, according to the agency’s director of Epidemic and Pandemic Diseases, Dr. Sylvie Briand, at a press conference. .
The first scenario would mean a continuation of the current situation, in which the coronavirus continues to be transmitted but without causing excessive serious cases, while a second option would allow the virus to be controlled in a similar way to how the flu season is managed annually, indicated the French expert.
In that case, “the virus would continue to circulate but the vaccine would be adapted to prevent it from causing many serious cases or hospitalizations,” which would surely require, as in the flu, annual vaccinations of risk groups and modified doses each season to respond to the evolution of coronavirus.
A third scenario, the most pessimistic, contemplates the emergence of new variants of the coronavirus, “creating a situation comparable to that of 2020, when people were still very vulnerable and it was likely that severe forms of the disease would develop,” warned the epidemiologist. .
Briand clarified that these scenarios handled by the WHO “are not predictions” but rather ways of responding cautiously to the current evolution of the pandemic, in which there is still uncertainty “and five variants of concern have already been seen to emerge, so it could a sixth will arise.
One of the fields that, according to the expert, is still not well understood by science in the current pandemic, which adds uncertainty, is the behavior of the coronavirus in other species, so a new variant “could occur in the animal kingdom and we hope that in that case it be quickly detected ».
Briand stressed that when the now-dominant omicron variant emerged in November, it was initially thought that the high number of mild cases it caused in South Africa, the first country to be detected, was associated with a young population, but its prevalence has finally been confirmed. less serious when reaching older countries.
“By especially affecting the upper respiratory tract, it tends to produce fewer severe cases and thus fewer hospitalizations and deaths,” he stressed.
Vaccines have ended up still showing efficacy against the new variant, although above all when it comes to reducing serious cases, while the potential of these drugs to reduce the capacity for infection has been reduced.
Attempts have been made to compensate for this in many countries with booster vaccines, something that “has been shown to be effective but is not sustainable,” admitted Briand, who stated that new compositions of these drugs are being worked on that will also prove to be effective against future variants. that may arise.
“We are not yet at the end of the tunnel, we need to see how the situation evolves in the coming months and there are still risks of new variants, but at least with ómicron there have been fewer hospitalizations and this has reduced the pressure on medical centers”, summarized the WHO expert.