2024-01-15 16:15:16
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Donald Trump is considered the favorite.
The New York building contractor and former reality TV star Donald Trump has so far fended off all scandals in this election campaign. His supporters and the party remain publicly close to him – even though he is the first president to face federal criminal charges, even though there were two impeachment proceedings against him and even though Republicans controlled the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives during his term in office have lost.
At the age of 77, he will be even more extreme in 2024: He wants to rule as a “dictator” on day one, Trump said in a TV show. Trump announced a tough crackdown on his critics, whom he calls “vermin,” and against foreigners who, in his eyes, want to “destroy the blood of the country.” According to Trump’s wishes, millions of them are to be deported. In addition, hundreds of his supporters who were imprisoned for their participation in the uprising on January 6, 2021 are to be pardoned. Trump wants to invest even more money in the police and punish doctors who perform gender reassignment surgery on minors. But he also announced that he supports exceptions to the abortion issue for rape and when the mother is at risk. That would be a softening of his previous positions – and it is unclear whether the voters in particular will buy that.
With his radical program, Trump is doing well at the moment: He is clearly ahead among the Republicans and is currently also scoring points in comparisons with incumbent Joe Biden, even if these ten months before the election have often not had much historical significance.
Nikki Haley, reason
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Nikki Haley was the United States Ambassador to the United States in New York and Governor of South Carolina.
The strongest competition to Trump in recent weeks has been the former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley. The 51-year-old was the US ambassador to the United States in New York under him and is relying on continued support from Ukraine and Israel in the election campaign. She positions herself as a voice of reason and is particularly well received by centrist voters and even some conservative Democrats. In surveys across the US, it has so far barely gotten above 15 percent.
Haley wants to strengthen the US border in the south and says that while she personally supports a ban on abortion, this is virtually impossible given the majority rules in the Senate, where 60 out of 100 representatives must vote for such a ban. She is well versed in personal dealings with voters and was able to score points above all through confident performances in the Republican television debates. But Haley has already made some communication errors under pressure, so it is unclear how she will withstand Trump’s attacks in the coming weeks.
Their hope: A second place finish in Iowa could lead to a tie or even a narrow win in New Hampshire next week. According to her supporters, this would create a window to win in her home state of South Carolina in mid-February, so that overall victory against Trump would then be within reach with a rise in the following US states.
Ron DeSantis, the failed one
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Ron DeSantis is the governor of Florida.
The rise and presumed fall of Ron DeSantis are already considered a foregone conclusion. After a convincing endorsement as Florida governor in the 2022 midterm elections, many thought he could be Donald Trump’s successor. But the 45-year-old is awkward when dealing with voters in person and often appears robotic in TV debates.
His policy positions on minority rights and immigration are even more radical than Trump’s, but his supporters wonder why they should vote for a copy while the original is still in the race. After a broad election campaign, DeSantis had to reduce his team several times due to a lack of money. He has recently been concentrating almost exclusively on Iowa and is hoping for a miracle there. Many observers believe that he will end his candidacy if he finishes in third place.
Vivek Ramaswamy, the loud one
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Vivek Ramaswamy is a startup founder from Ohio.
Americans have a weakness for supposedly successful entrepreneurs in politics. Start-up founder Vivek Ramaswamy from Ohio hoped to attract attention with his energetic demeanor and loud demands – and he had a brief phase in which his poll numbers were in double digits, but now the vast majority of Republicans are impressed by the 38-year-old’s loud demeanor annoyed. Among other things, he wants to “smash” the FBI and the US tax office (IRS) and “rebuild them from scratch if necessary.” And he also presents himself as an ardent Trump fan. Ramaswamy is putting a lot of his own money into the election campaign and could therefore stick around for some time, but he is not a promising candidate.
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