Experts from the World Health Organization (WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION) prepare responses to three possible developments in the pandemic of Covid-19, two of them relatively optimistic, as highlighted today in a press conference the director of Epidemic and Pandemic Diseases of the organism, Dr. Sylvie Briand.
The first scenario would mean a continuation of the current situation, in which the coronavirus it continues to be transmitted but does not cause excessive serious cases, while a second option would allow the virus to be controlled in a similar way to how the annual flusaid the French expert.
In that case, ” the virus would continue to circulate but the vaccine it would be adapted to avoid causing many serious cases or hospitalizations, ” which would surely require, as in influenza, annual vaccinations to risk groups and modified doses each season to respond to the evolution of the coronavirus.
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A third scenario, the most pessimistic, contemplates the emergence of new variant of the coronavirus, ” creating a situation comparable to that of 2020, when people were still very vulnerable and serious forms of the disease were likely to develop,” the epidemiologist warned.
Briand clarified that these scenarios handled by the WHO “are not predictions” but ways to respond cautiously to the current evolution of the pandemic, in which there is still uncertainty “and five variants of concern have already emerged, so a sixth could arise”.
One of the fields that according to the expert is still not well understood by science in the current pandemic, which adds uncertainty, is the behavior of the coronavirus in other species, so a new variant “could occur in the animal kingdom and we hope that in that case it will be quickly detected”.
Briand stressed that when the now dominant omicron variant emerged in November, the high number of mild cases it caused in South Africa, the first country to be detected, was initially thought to be associated with a young population, but its lesser severity has finally been confirmed as it reaches older countries.
“By affecting especially the upper respiratory tract, it tends to produce fewer serious cases and thus fewer hospitalizations and deaths,” he stressed.
Vaccines have ended up being still effective against the new variant, although especially when it comes to reducing severe cases, while the potential of these drugs to reduce the ability to infection has been reduced.
This has been tried to compensate in many countries with booster vaccines, something that “has proven effective but is not sustainable,” admitted Briand, who said that new compositions of these drugs are being worked on that prove to be effective also against future variants that may arise.
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“We are not yet at the end of the tunnel, we need to see how the situation evolves in the coming months and there are still risks of new variants, but at least with omicron there have been fewer hospitalizations and this has reduced the pressure in medical centers,” summarized the WHO expert.
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