(CNN) — US President Joe Biden spent the weekend leading what appears to be an increasingly desperate final push to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukrainean incursion that could have serious consequences for his own political position.
If President Vladimir Putin orders his tanks into Russia’s smallest democratic neighbor, it would send shock waves around the world and trigger one of the worst and most dangerous national security crises since the Cold War.
And while not his main intention, Putin would do significant damage to Biden’s prestige and inflict real-time consequences on Americans in an already tense midterm election year, even with further increases in gasoline prices likely. that are already on the rise and often act as an index of voter anger and perceptions about the economy.
The president’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, on Sunday summed up a weekend in which the tone of Western governments warning of a possible invasion became more alarming, exacerbating the sense that the Russian troop buildup of weeks around Ukraine could be reaching a turning point.
“The way they’ve built their forces, the way they’ve maneuvered things into place, makes it a distinct possibility that there’s going to be a major military action very soon,” Sullivan told Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.” from CNN.
Conjuring up a terrifying scenario of massive conflict in Europe, Sullivan warned that an invasion would likely begin with prolonged missile barrage and bomb attacks that could cause significant civilian casualties.
“If Russia moves forward, we will defend NATO territory, we will impose costs on Russia, and we will make sure that we come out of this as the West stronger, more determined, more determined than we have been in 30 years, and that Russia ultimately bears a cost.” strategically significant by military action,” Sullivan told Tapper.
Adding to the impression that this could be a fateful week, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Sunday on Fox that the United States had good intelligence sources that pointed to a “crescendo opportunity for Mr. Putin.”
internal recoil
The United States will not send troops to Ukraine to defend it. The former Soviet Union is not a member of NATO, the alliance that has defended the Western world since shortly after World War II. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be a direct conflict between Russian and American soldiers. However, Biden ordered several thousand troops to NATO states to deter any Russian adventurism — including Romania and Poland, two countries once behind the Iron Curtain but now members of the alliance. — much to Putin’s fury.
A Russian invasion of Ukraine would crush democratic principles and the idea that the people can choose their leaders for themselves, principles on which the United States has built decades of foreign policy. It could encourage China to take action against the democratic island of Taiwan, which it considers Chinese territory, in a conflict that is far more likely to draw the United States into a major war than an invasion of Ukraine.
But more immediately, a Russian invasion could have a significant domestic setback within the United States in a way that would impose further economic pain and ultimately hurt the prospects of Biden and his Democrats in the November election.
The president promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday that the United States would impose measures that would “quickly and decisively” punish Russia. This response would transform American foreign policy and add another crisis to Biden’s heaping plate.
For the first time in 30 years, the United States and Russia, the two countries with the largest nuclear arsenals, would be locked in a direct confrontation. Tensions could rise further if the United States gets back in the business of shooting down Russians. There have been calls in Congress for a US-funded insurgency in Ukraine to mirror the Washington-led one that helped drive Moscow out of Afghanistan in the 1980s and hastened the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia would respond to such a campaign, and it has the ability to disrupt US goals and diplomacy around the world, including on vital issues like the nuclear challenges posed by Iran and North Korea, which have the potential to soon cause a direct threat to the security of American citizens.
A Russian invasion of Ukraine could also send oil prices soaring and spell direct pain for American drivers. High gasoline prices, currently averaging $3.48 according to the American Automobile Association, have been a contributing factor in Biden’s falling popularity. The president cannot afford a crisis with the potential to push them even higher just days after key data on Thursday showed inflation rising 7.5%, the worst since 1982.
Russia invading could also send stocks tumbling in ways that affect voters’ perceptions of economic security and prosperity, deepening concerns that would further affect Democratic hopes of avoiding a loss in an election that could deliver the House. of Representatives and the Senate to the Republicans. Then there is a psychological and political backlash that Biden could face with an already disgruntled electorate if a Russian invasion of Ukraine adds to the impression of a world out of control such that he and the US are outmatched.
Republicans have already tried to paint Biden as weak and give the impression that robust US efforts to talk Putin out of invading — including preparing the most painful sanctions Washington and the West have ever imposed on Moscow — have failed to influence the Russian leader. Former President Donald Trump has made an argument that will be familiar if an invasion occurs. On Saturday he claimed in an interview with Fox that Putin had been encouraged to defy the United States because of the chaotic evacuation of Afghanistan by the Biden team.
“When they saw all that, I think they were emboldened,” Trump said. The former president also claimed that he would have prevented Putin from taking such a position, adding: “I know him very well, I get on very well with him. We respected each other.” Trump claimed that no administration had been tougher on Russia than the one he led. While his administration had a strong policy toward Moscow — including sending arms to Ukraine — Trump often seemed to be following his personal approach, which involved cajoling Putin and taking the Russian leader’s point of view on key issues. including Putin denying that he interfered in the 2016 US presidential election.
A second Trump presidency would raise real questions about NATO’s future that would again play into Putin’s goal of dividing or even destroying the alliance. The New York Times reported, for example, in 2019 that Trump had spoken privately about withdrawing from the organization he frequently criticized, a move that, if carried out, would represent a major victory for Russia. Any action in Ukraine that hurts Biden could help Trump and his waiting campaign, a factor that could sway the calculations of a Russian leader who has already interfered in US elections with the aim of helping the 45th president.
A Biden presidency that is already in trouble
Trump’s comments over the weekend were clearly intended as a signal to Republicans on how to go after Biden in the event of a Russian invasion. The GOP has spent months building a midterm election message centered on the idea that Biden is weak and incompetent and that the world has lost respect for America with the departure of strongman Trump.
Biden delivered a direct warning to Putin about US actions — including sanctions that could cripple the Russian economy if an invasion is carried out — in a phone call Saturday. But his frequent contacts with the Russian leader risk leaving him open to accusations of appeasement if Putin ignores US warnings and marches on Ukraine anyway.
Republican leaders also want to emphasize high gas and commodity prices, mostly caused by the pandemic, to portray Biden’s economic management as a disaster despite some of the strongest employment numbers in decades. Many of the cascading events that would result from a Russian invasion of Ukraine could play in their favor.
Biden’s presidency is already shaky. His approval rating fell to 41% in a new CNN/SSRS poll released last week, and a Russian invasion of Ukraine would deepen the sense of crisis already rocking the White House. History suggests that presidents in so much trouble suffer painful defeats in midterm elections in their first terms. The CNN poll, conducted in January and February, found that only 45% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters want the party to run Biden again in 2024, while 51% prefer a different candidate. However, there was no better news for Trump, with 50% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters wanting the GOP to run him again and 49% wanting an alternative candidate.
Biden is unlikely to get much credit from voters for what, despite some rhetorical errors, has been a successful, multifaceted effort to unite America’s allies in NATO and build a set of punitive consequences for Moscow if invade Ukraine.
Any decision by Putin to stop at the brink of an invasion and withdraw his forces would allow the US president to argue in the run-up to the midterm elections that his strength and political skill caused Russia to back down. But the Russian leader is unlikely to reduce pressure on Ukraine, even if he doesn’t mount a full invasion, and no doubt plans to be a constant headache for the United States and Biden.