2023-04-23 03:01:00
Last week, in this same column, we warned about the possibility that the Government’s objective of raising US$ 5 billion could not be met during the application period of the “Soybean 3 dollar” at $300, maturing at May 30.
In the first place, it should be noted that the soybean harvest lasts until the end of June, and this is where the Government’s main misjudgment lies. Leaving out half the calendar period of the soybean harvest is limiting the future liquidation of foreign exchange, which depends on the sales of producers.
Another factor that influences the soybean dollar 3: the harvest date
We always say that this business depends on biology, and there is no better proof of this than that of soybeans, which indicates that the strong harvest period is during May and June.
Another issue that influences the normal commercial movement of the harvest is the strikes of the unions, whatever they may be, which stop the shipments and unloading of soybeans at port terminals.
We can add as a factor of high relevance and impact on the market, and that influences the selling decision of the producers, the upward movements of the dollar blue, which this week exceeded $425 pesos. It is known that the blue It is a very small market, estimated at US$ 5 million.
But what happens is that the price of the parallel dollar impacts the price of other dollars in the official market. This is the case of the MEP, which at the end of this week was trading at $420, and the dollar Counted with Liqui, at levels of $430 per dollar.
And this is, in our opinion, the main reason why producers choose not to happily sell soybeans, even though the price includes the addition of a dollar of $300.
In addition, with the rise of the dollar blue and of other alternative dollars, the $300 for dollar is already out of step and behind with respect to reality.
The country risk is very close to 2,600 points, while Brazil’s country risk is 259. This means that our country risk is 10 times greater than Brazil’s.
In theory, this country risk implies a surtax of 26% on non-existent loans that Argentina may receive. The Central Bank’s reserves are getting lower, and some economists already consider that the BCRA has negative reserves today.
As we can see, all the exchange and economic indicators are negative, there cannot be a furor in soybean sales with the photo we are seeing today, although the film in the future could be much worse.
The other topic of discussion is why soybeans are worth today the equivalent of $105,000 per ton against $100,000 per ton that was quoted in December 2022, when the “Soybean 2 dollar” was implemented, an increase of 5% in four months. , while inflation in March was 7.7%.
We will try to shed light on what is happening in the markets, and why the current price is not attractive for producers.
Let’s see: soybeans in December were trading at US$ 420 per ton and today they are trading at US$ 360, a drop of US$ 60 per ton, it is not a minor issue.
The price of soybean oil FOB upriver ports was trading at US$ 1,200 per ton in December 2022, and today the price is US$ 970 per ton.
A drop of US$ 239 per ton in the price of oil undoubtedly has a strong impact on the milling margin, influencing the drop in the price of soybeans. FOB soybean meal dropped from $530 to $515 a ton, and luckily the decline was no more, in which case mill margins could have been much worse.
With these drops in the prices of soybean oil and by-products, and despite the drop in the price of soybeans from US$ 60 per ton, and today trading at US$ 360 per ton, milling margins continue to be negatives. For the oil industry to earn money, the price of available soybeans should be at US$350 per ton, and it is not ruled out that it could reach this level faster than thought.
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