/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/prisa/OZDOZX5I6TC35YC5AFB6WNUVBU.jpg?fit=768%2C527&ssl=1)
This Wednesday, Atlético de Madrid has the difficult mission in the Champions League of piercing the goal of the team with the least goals scored in the five major European leagues: Inter. Cholo Simeone’s team has just lost by the minimum in Milan (0-1) and must score at least two goals, and not concede any, against one of the clubs that has been in the most shape throughout the season. Inter have only conceded 13 goals in Serie A, far from the 23 conceded by Juventus, the second least scored Italian team, and three goals less than Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, the second least scored team among the most important championships in Europe, or Real Madrid, which with 18 goals against occupies third position.
In addition, the team led by Simone Inzaghi is the fourth team with the fewest expected goals against – a statistical metric that measures the probability of a team conceding a goal based on the characteristics of the shot, such as location, angle and other factors – and which concedes, behind Leverkusen, Juventus and Arsenal. The Nerazzurri They should have conceded 8.8 more goals in the league, which is synonymous with a good defensive block that prevents more goals than should have ended up in the back of the net.
Inter are showing this season that reaching the final of the last Champions League was not a matter of luck. The data shows that this team has the best defensive performance in recent years, conceding only 0.46 goals per game in Serie A, the lowest figure in the last decade, and 0.71 in the Champions League, also the lower figure along with Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund.
Inzaghi shows a solid and convincing slate
Set Nerazzurri He has well-defined positions on the field. Since the beginning of the season, the Italian coach has placed all his trust in starting from minute 1 with a 3-5-2. And the result has given many joys. Rival coaches have proposed several lineups against that scheme, but almost none have been good enough to break the Milanese defense.
In all the games so far, Inter have only conceded three goals in a game, their biggest score against, in a game against Benfica, when they came out with a 3-1-4-2 and without Yann Sommer in goal. And they have only conceded two goals against Bologna in the first leg of Serie A (which they tied) and in the Cup (which they lost); against Sassuolo, in their only league defeat with that formation; and against Roma, when Inzaghi dared with his only 5-3-2 of the season and took the 4-2 victory.
Simeone chose in the first leg to also present a 3-5-2 formation on the green, but it was not as fruitful as Inzaghi’s idea. The Argentine coach believes that concentration is one of the keys to today’s match against Atlético: “It is a match that requires very high concentration and the team that manages to play better in this aspect will succeed.”
Of the few goals that Inter concede, almost all come from inside the area. Only four times has the rival team scored from further afield. Opposing players must penetrate Sommer or Audero’s area, if they manage to do so, in order to have a better opportunity to score a goal. This is shown in the following graph, which shows that more than half of the shots against are from inside the area, and, of the goals, the majority come from the center or the goalkeeper’s right zone.
Inzaghi’s defensive score in the first leg against Atlético in the Champions League shows an interesting picture. The attackers allowed the rival freedom of movement in their area, but began the pressure when Atlético came out to their middle zone, with several defensive actions before the ball reached the middle of the field.
However, the Italian coach made it clear to his team that he did not want the Spanish team to have a highway on the wings through Griezmann, Llorente, Molina or Lino, who was one of those who put the most effort into getting the ball forward in the first leg.
In the preview of today’s match, Atlético’s central defender, Axel Witsel, admitted that the rival team is a very strong team in all sectors: “Tomorrow is not going to be an easy match, they are a team that shows a lot of aggression, There is a lot of contact, a lot of intensity and I believe that if we, at this level of intensity, of aggressiveness, are like them or more, we will be able to do something tomorrow.”
A bolt under sticks
Even if Atlético is able to break the defensive block, they would still have to face the Swiss goalkeeper behind the sticks. Yann Sommer is experiencing one of the best seasons of his life in his first year with the Italian team. He is the fittest goalkeeper in the big five leagues. This is indicated by the data, in which, by far, he is the goalkeeper who leaves the most clean sheets per game and makes the most saves per shot received.
Sommer stops all kinds of shots, easy and difficult. The 35-year-old veteran goalkeeper has stopped all the balls that go to the center of the goal, and has conceded very few goals in the lower right and central parts. Furthermore, of the 91 shots he has received, 22.4 should have ended up in the back of the net, according to xGOT (expected goals on goal based on the quality of the shots), but he has only conceded 15, a much lower figure and which shows the confidence and security that the goalkeeper shows between the sticks.
Atlético has the tough mission of overcoming the defensive web that Inzaghi has created on the field, with a solid block and with players who know what they are doing, and a goalkeeper who averages the best figures in Europe. Two goals are enough, but only four teams have been able to reach those figures this season.
to continue reading
_