Why Republican Senators Keep Getting Fooled by Trump

A small caucus of non-MAGA Republican senators including Thom Tillis, John Cornyn, and Bill Cassidy continues to display profound credulity regarding Donald Trump’s administration.

The Bottom Line

• The Credulous Caucus: Moderate and outgoing GOP senators like John Cornyn, Thom Tillis, and Bill Cassidy continue to trust administration nominees despite clear historical evidence.
• Broken Vows: Todd Blanche’s refusal to guarantee Department of Justice independence on Meet the Press underscored the gap between nominee promises and reality.
• Political Fallout: These moderate divergences from the MAGA mainstream have yielded little political insulation, with figures like Cassidy and Cornyn losing primaries to Trump-backed challengers.

The Anatomy of Senate Credulity in the Trump Era

For many observers of American politics, recent years have dismantled hopeful beliefs about what the electorate will tolerate. Yet a stubborn faction of non-MAGA Republican senators manages to remain preciously naive about the administration they navigate. No matter how many times Donald Trump or his aides demonstrate their operational style, these senators express perpetual surprise.

Consider the confirmation of Todd Blanche as attorney general. Blanche secured confirmation in a tight 50–49 vote last week, but only after GOP Senators Thom Tillis and John Cornyn extracted a written assurance that a $1.8 billion fund for payouts to Trump allies would not proceed. Senator Bill Cassidy also wavered before stating he was persuaded by the vow. All three men face departures: Tillis is retiring, while Cornyn and Cassidy lost primaries to Trump-backed challengers.

Here is the kicker. Over the weekend, Blanche appeared on NBC’s Meet the Press. When Kristen Welker asked whether he could pledge that the Justice Department would always act independently of the White House, Blanche refused. Yet Blanche insisted to Welker that Trump would never ask him to do anything unethical or illegal.

When Legislative Leverage Fails to Translate

That reassurance might soothe someone whose political memory began in August. But anyone tracking the administration knows Blanche played a starring role in negotiating the controversial slush fund, as detailed by Federal Judge Kathleen Williams in May. To vote for his confirmation, Cornyn, Tillis, and Cassidy had to convince themselves that Blanche’s past conduct did not reflect his moral compass, and that permanent confirmation would somehow increase his accountability.

Cassidy’s position remains particularly puzzling given his vote to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial and Trump’s subsequent campaign to defeat him. Yet Cassidy has a long record of trusting nominees who pivot away from their pledges. As noted in reporting by Nicholas Florko, Cassidy—who is a physician—cast a deciding vote to confirm Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but only after receiving promises about preserving the existing vaccination regime. Kennedy promptly broke that pledge.

Appearing on ABC’s The Week, Cassidy acknowledged it was pretty evident Kennedy’s vow was a lie. On CNN’s State of the Union, he branded the White House’s move to unbundle measles, mumps, and rubella injections as a crazy, stupid thing. Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, another doctor who voted for Kennedy, has similarly expressed frustration over the administration’s anti-vaccine trajectory.

Senate Confirmations and Nominee Pledge Outcomes

Nominee	Key GOP Enabler(s)	Initial Pledge / Condition	Subsequent Outcome
Todd Blanche (Attorney General)	John Cornyn, Thom Tillis, Bill Cassidy	Written assurance to halt $1.8 billion payout fund for allies.	Declined to pledge DOJ independence from White House on Meet the Press.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (HHS Secretary)	Bill Cassidy, John Barrasso	Promises to preserve the existing federal vaccination regime.	Advanced unbundling of MMR injections, which Cassidy termed “crazy.”

The Limits of Symbolic Opposition

Other moderate Republicans have walked a different line. Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski voted against Blanche’s confirmation, citing the politicization of the Justice Department under his watch as acting attorney general. Even so, their strategic clarity often falters.

Murkowski delivered one of 2025’s most striking statements when casting a crucial vote to pass Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Expressing her sincere hope that the legislation was not the final product, she surrendered her leverage before the bill ever reached the president’s desk. Collins, meanwhile, faces a challenging reelection campaign in Maine this fall. While perpetually concerned by administration policies, she rarely deploys her vote effectively.

Back in 2018, Collins voted to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh after noting his view that Roe v. Wade was settled precedent. When Kavanaugh joined the majority overturning Roe in 2022, Collins lamented the outcome but maintained she would repeat her vote. More recently, Collins supported a massive appropriation for ICE with minimal strings attached, only to express dismay when the funds purchased shock gloves for agents.

Writing these senators off as cynical strategists ignores the electoral reality: their mild deviations have cost them dearly. Cassidy and Cornyn saw their careers upended by primary losses, while Tillis retired to sidestep a brutal intraparty fight. Whether driven by earnest miscalculation or an inability to adapt to the political climate, these lawmakers continue to discover that taking administration assurances at face value is a losing bet.