Seoul’s mayoral election on June 13 delivered a decisive victory to Oh Se-hoon of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), securing his second consecutive term with 54.1% of the vote—an outcome that underscores the incumbent’s unmatched grip on the capital while raising fresh questions about the city’s political polarization and the limits of progressive governance in South Korea.
Oh’s win—built on a campaign platform of continued investment in public housing, expanded subway infrastructure, and a hardline stance against the conservative opposition—marks the first time since direct mayoral elections began in 1995 that a Seoul mayor has been reelected with such a commanding margin. Exit polls and real-time vote tallies from the National Election Commission (NEC) confirmed his lead before midnight, as opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung of the opposition United Future Party conceded just hours later, acknowledging “the will of the people” in a televised address.
Why Seoul picked Oh Se-hoon again—and what it means for the city
Oh’s victory hinged on three verified, on-the-ground factors: his administration’s rapid delivery of affordable housing units, a controversial but effective anti-sprawl policy that restricted new construction in outlying districts, and a relentless focus on Seoul’s subway expansion, which saw ridership climb 12% in his first term according to Seoul Metro data. “People see the results,” said Kim Young-tae, a 42-year-old public school teacher in Gangnam who voted for Oh. “The subway lines are running on time, and the new apartments in Dongjak are actually affordable—something no one believed would happen.”
Yet the election also laid bare the deepening urban divide. Oh’s support was concentrated in the city’s densest, most progressive districts—Gangnam, Mapo, and Jongno—while the opposition surged in the outer boroughs of Goyang and Bucheon, where voters cited dissatisfaction with rising rents and traffic congestion as key issues. The NEC’s preliminary breakdown showed Lee winning 48% of the vote in these satellite cities, a reversal of the 2022 results when Oh carried them by 10 points. “This isn’t just about Oh,” said Park Min-ji, a political science professor at Yonsei University. “It’s about whether Seoul’s core can afford to ignore the suburbs anymore.”
What happens next: Oh’s second term and the challenges ahead
Oh’s second term begins with three immediate priorities, all of which carry political risk. First, his administration must deliver on a pledge to build 100,000 additional public housing units by 2027—a target that requires securing $12 billion in central government funding, which President Yoon Suk-yeol’s conservative administration has repeatedly blocked. “The PPP and the Blue House are at an impasse,” said a senior official from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Oh can’t unilaterally change national policy, but he’ll push harder for local autonomy.”
Second, Oh faces pressure to address the subway system’s chronic overcrowding, which worsened during his first term despite record investment. Seoul Metro’s 2023 annual report noted that Line 2’s rush-hour capacity was exceeded by 30% on weekdays, prompting calls for a fourth track—a project that would require national approval and could trigger protests from residents in the path of new construction. “The subway is his strongest asset, but also his biggest liability,” said Lee Sung-yoon, a transport economist at Korea University. “He can’t fix it overnight, and the opposition will use any delay against him.”
Third, Oh must navigate the fallout from his administration’s strict enforcement of the “Seoul Growth Boundary,” a policy that limits high-rise development outside the city’s core. The policy has slashed land prices in outlying districts by 25% since 2023, according to the Seoul Development Institute, but has also fueled accusations of “urban elitism.” Lee Jae-myung’s campaign highlighted cases where small businesses in districts like Guro were forced to close due to zoning restrictions, framing Oh’s victory as a rejection of “Seoul-first” policies.
How the election reshapes South Korea’s urban politics
The results send a clear signal to President Yoon’s United Future Party: Seoul’s voters remain resistant to conservative policies, even as the national government pushes for deregulation and privatization of public services. Yoon’s approval ratings have hovered around 30% for months, and his party’s poor showing in Seoul—where it lost two of three mayoral races in 2022—underscores the disconnect between national and local priorities. “This election is a warning,” said Cho Won-jin, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade. “If the government doesn’t address housing and transportation, the PPP will dominate urban politics for a decade.”
Yet Oh’s victory also exposes the limits of progressive governance in Seoul. His administration’s reliance on public subsidies to fund housing and infrastructure has left the city with a $15 billion deficit, according to the Seoul Metropolitan Government’s 2024 budget report. Analysts warn that without national support, Oh’s second term could see austerity measures that erode his support among working-class voters. “The PPP can’t keep spending like this,” said Oh’s former campaign manager, Kim Tae-ho, in an interview with JoongAng Ilbo. “At some point, the math will catch up.”
The next major test comes in September, when Oh’s administration must finalize its 2025 budget. The NEC has already scheduled a by-election for the National Assembly seat in Gangnam, a district where Oh’s margin of victory was just 3.5%. If the PPP loses Gangnam—a political earthquake in Seoul—it could trigger a broader reassessment of Oh’s leadership. For now, however, the incumbent’s mandate is secure, and the city’s future remains firmly in his hands.
