2023-05-20 17:48:00
Image: Libkos/AP
Summer is just around the corner in a few weeks, but Ukraine’s expected spring offensive has not yet begun. The weather, ongoing combat training and halting arms deliveries are cited as brakes.
Over the past few months, Western partners have shipped billions worth of weapons systems and ammunition to Ukraine – under pressure to deliver the equipment in time for an expected spring offensive. Now summer is only a few weeks away and the Ukrainian offensive is a long time coming.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyj explained this last week by saying that his country still does not have enough western weapons to be able to rely on success without major losses. Authorities and defense circles also say that the weather and the combat preparation of the troops also played a role.
The counter-offensive against the Russian advance will come, it is officially emphasized. A representative from US government circles said confidentially that Ukraine has already taken the first steps.
One reason for the delay in the spring offensive is the weather. The frozen ground took longer than expected to thaw. The winter gave way to a wet, cold spring, the drying out stopped. Instead, deep mud is left behind, making it difficult for vehicles to move without tracks. The mud is like a soup, says the US official. “You literally sink into it.”
In recent months, the US and its allies have helped Ukrainian troops train tens of thousands of soldiers. The last battalion in US training is just now completing its course, which not only includes combat techniques, but also targeted training in weapon systems and combined weapon tactics. According to the US armed forces, more than 30 partner nations participate in these training programs.
What is still outstanding is the training of the Ukrainian troops in Abrams tanks. The USA are planning this at the Grafenwöhr military training area in Bavaria. However, Ukraine will not wait for its counter-offensive until this tank training has been completed, said the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov recently.
Image: Nicolas Armer/dpa
In the past five months alone, the US has pledged more than $14 billion worth of weapons and ammunition. The largest part comes from stock in order to be able to deliver to Kiev faster. Other Western partners have also pledged billions in tanks, vehicles and air defense systems.
However, much of this has not yet arrived, explains Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a British ex-intelligence officer. So far only about 100 of about 300 promised armor systems, such as the Leopard 2, have arrived. Of around 700 promised combat vehicles, such as the Marauders and the American Bradley armored personnel carriers, it is almost half.
Enough ammunition is also needed when starting an offensive. Here, the leadership of Ukraine’s military logistics will have a lot of weight in deciding when Ukraine is ready, Barry explains.
Evidence of a counter-offensive
According to information from Western government circles, Russia currently has around 200,000 soldiers along a 1,000-kilometer battle line, who would have dug in similar to the First World War. These troops are not as well trained as those who first attacked Ukraine. But they are protected by trenches, minefields and concrete anti-tank barriers.
Ukraine has begun shelling Russian lines with long-range artillery fire. According to the Western informant, this could be an indication that an advance is planned at this point – or also a diversionary maneuver to direct Russian attention to this location and to divert attention from the actual point of attack.
If Ukraine then tries to advance into Russian-held areas and break through the defense lines, then, according to IISS expert Barry, that would be a clear sign: the spring offensive has begun.
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