2023-09-20 17:06:00
13:55 GMT, September 20, 2023
Angelica Ferrer
Correspondent in Mexico
Despite Western sanctions against Russia, the nation has been resilient and has advanced economically, considers the conflict resolution specialist at the University of Uppsala, Sweden, María Cristina Rosas, in an interview for Sputnik.
Lea in Sputnik
Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his country has recovered economically, even in the face of the barriers imposed by United States and its allies.
“We can say that the recovery stage of the Russian economy has been completed. We have resisted unprecedented external pressure, the onslaught of sanctions from some ruling elites of the so-called Western bloc, some ruling elites of certain countries that we describe as hostile,” commented at a meeting on the preparation of the federal budget for 2024 and the planning period of 2025 and 2026.
According to Rosas, this is an example of how Russia has strengthened not only after the restrictions derived from the conflict with Ukraine, which began in February 2022, but throughout history, since it is accustomed to applying measures that They help to continue growing.
“The sanctioned country becomes resilient, adapts, gets used to living with [las restricciones] and find ways to survive. In the case of Russia, with all this long history it has of facing sanctions, it has become resilient,” he mentions.
Why are sanctions a failure?
For the professor at the Faculty of Political and Social Sciences of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), there are various reasons why Western sanctions have failed in their attempt to undermine Russia not only economically, but politically and even in sports. Among some of the highlighted factors are the negotiations with nations such as China and its alliances within the BRICS. Jeffrey Sachs exposes the big loser of the failed anti-Russian sanctions
September 17, 12:48 GMT
“Russia found a way to develop more intense trade relations with other countries and that is translating into a dedollarization (…). There is a study by the International Monetary Fund on this. In it, it is pointed out that the dollar is increasingly less used in the world, although it continues to be the currency of transactions, debt contracting and so on. For this reason, the IMF believes that it is inevitable that [la divisa estadounidense] fall as a currency in common use in the world in the future,” he points out. In this last factor, adds Rosas, global discontent towards systems such as that of Bretton Woods, which is made up of the IMF and the World Bank. Another area that causes a negative result for the West when it comes to sanctioning Moscow is the periodicity of your blocks.
The issue with “sanctions is that, if they last long, they make the countries that receive them [fortalezcan]. In the long run, too [los castigos] they turn against the nations that carry out the actions,” the expert points out.
Putin: Russia became one of the 5 largest economies in the world and surpassed Germany
Along these same lines, the internationalist from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) Rubén Ramos Muñoz highlights that, historically, extending sanctions against a nation for a long time is inefficient, since there will always be a plan that helps it overcome these barriers.
“Russia is no exception. One of its strategies was when it demanded that Europe sell gas in rubles and not in euros or dollars. With this measure, Russia’s international currency reserves benefited and its own currency strengthened,” he explains in an interview for Sputnik.
Another area that the international affairs specialist analyzes is the field of hydrocarbons, where Moscow, upon being blocked by Western powers, has focused on diversify your market in China and India.
In this situation, “the United States has forced the European Union itself to become dependent on American energy sources, since, by being practically champions of the sanctions imposed by the White House, Russia ceased to be the main supplier of fuel to the EU. That has been counterproductive for the US and for [el bloque económico]”.
Proof of these consequences is the technical recession experienced in the euro zone, this after two quarters of consecutive negative economic results and with nations such as Germany, Belgium and Lithuania with figures in the red.
“In general, Russia has managed the geopolitical board very well“, indicates Ramos Muñoz.
The Bank of Russia raises its interest rate by one point to 13% annually
September 15, 11:43 GMT
Short and long term forecasts
Given the effect boomerang of the Western sanctions against Russia, the also professor at the Faculty of Higher Studies (FES) Aragón of the UNAM foresees that these measures will be fragmented or become more flexible in the short term.
“Recently, the West has already reduced or made some sanctions more flexible. It has also looked for a way to negotiate (…) on issues such as grain because this has also had an implication at a global level,” he details. The EU is betting on that the conflict in Ukraine “has no solution in the short term”
September 14, 20:14 GMT
These measures, added to actions carried out inside and outside the Russian territory, such as the provisions on energy, could help to ensure that, at the end of this year, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grow between 2.5 and 2.8%.
But that is not all. María Cristina Rosas, a specialist in conflict resolution from the University of Uppsala, Sweden, foresees that the actions implemented by the Russian central bank will be central to achieving a greater progress in economic matterssince she has managed to establish the guidelines to overcome the worst stages of the blockades implemented by Washington and its allies.
It also requires continuing to work on its alliance with China, as it will benefit it in all areas, and to focus on improving its demographics.
That last item “It is a total challenge for the Russian economy to function. and, above all, sharing thousands of kilometers of border with China, which is the second most populated country in the world. The Asian rapprochement must also be further developed, as Putin has done successfully through the infrastructure. That is important because this can energize activities and give greater projection to Russia,” she concludes.
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