Wildfire Risk Threatens Thousands of US Historic Landmarks

More than half of the 100,117 sites listed on the National Register of Historic Places face measurable wildfire exposure, according to a national-scale assessment published in Nature Scientific Reports. Researchers at UC Santa Barbara’s National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis warn that 3,446 of these cultural landmarks experience severe risk, threatening irreplaceable heritage across the United States.

In Plain English: The Clinical Takeaway

• Unrecoverable Loss: Unlike residential properties, historical structures anchor collective memory and cannot simply be rebuilt once consumed by fire.
• Concentrated Exposure: Buildings and historic districts make up 90 percent of listed resources, facing acute physical vulnerability because their cultural value is bound to their physical architecture.
• Proactive Planning Deficits: Cultural heritage remains largely absent from dedicated wildfire planning frameworks across most U.S. states, forcing historic sites to compete within broader, non-specific emergency protocols.

Mapping National Vulnerability and Ecological Exposure

Led by researchers at UC Santa Barbara’s National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), this evaluation represents the first national-scale assessment of wildfire risk targeting American cultural heritage. Investigators cross-referenced every mappable site on the National Register of Historic Places with high-resolution wildfire burn probability models. The findings categorize risk by geographic coordinates, site classification, and overall cultural significance.

The data reveals that wildfire hazard is heavily concentrated in the western United States, though emerging hotspots appear in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and the southeastern coast. Nationally significant sites face disproportionately high wildfire exposure compared to state and local landmarks. States featuring particularly dense clusters of vulnerable historic zones include California, New Mexico, Colorado, and Oklahoma.

Recent events underscore these statistical models. When the Palisades Fire swept through Los Angeles, it destroyed the Will Rogers Ranch House. Months later, the Dragon Bravo wildfire burned through Grand Canyon National Park, destroying the historic Grand Canyon Lodge built in 1927. Rebuilding portions of the Will Rogers site carries a projected cost of $5.1 million, while the future of the Grand Canyon Lodge remains undecided following its earlier reconstruction after a 1932 fire.

Wildfire Exposure Metrics Across Historic Landmark Categories

Metric Category	Recorded Data / Finding	Primary Source Reference
Total Registered Sites Assessed	100,117 locations	Nature Scientific Reports / NCEAS
Sites Facing Severe Wildfire Risk	3,446 locations	Nature Scientific Reports / NCEAS
Proportion of Structurally Vulnerable Resources	90% (Buildings and historic districts)	Nature Scientific Reports / NCEAS
Primary Funding Body	Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation	UC Santa Barbara Release

Psychological Impacts and the Absence of Heritage Planning

The implications of these fires extend beyond physical timber and stone. Coauthor Benjamin Halpern, professor at UCSB’s Bren School of Environmental Science and executive director of NCEAS, emphasizes the psychological toll on local populations. “The connection people have to places, their sense of place, is a profound and deeply underappreciated dimension of what communities stand to lose from wildfire,” Halpern states.

Despite these stakes, cultural heritage is largely omitted from statutory wildfire mitigation frameworks in most states. California stands as a notable exception through CAL FIRE’s Cultural Resources Management Program. In most other jurisdictions, historic landmarks must vie for attention within generalized all-hazards planning initiatives that lack specific mandates for heritage preservation.

To combat this vulnerability, researchers advocate for targeted mitigation strategies that comply with historic preservation standards. Recommended protocols include defensible space vegetation management, structural hardening utilizing fire-resistant building materials, and the integration of concealed fire suppression systems that safeguard structures without compromising their architectural integrity.

Future Trajectory and Proactive Preservation

Climate change models project an inevitable expansion of wildfire hazard zones, placing historic sites in historically lower-risk regions directly in the crosshairs. Lead author Mona Farnisa notes that the study’s open-source dataset offers federal, state, and local agencies a consistent foundation for prioritization. By identifying vulnerable assets beforehand, resource managers can execute strategic interventions before uncontrolled blazes dictate the outcome permanently.

References

• Assessing national-scale wildfire exposure to American cultural heritage sites. Nature Scientific Reports.
• National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). Spatial modeling of wildfire burn probabilities across the National Register of Historic Places. UC Santa Barbara.
• CAL FIRE. Cultural Resources Management Program guidelines and state hazard mitigation frameworks. State of California.