2023-10-26 03:30:00
Javier Tovar*
María Corina Machado repeats over and over again that she will take her candidacy for the presidency of Venezuela “to the end” and that she is ready to defeat Nicolás Maduro in 2024. But she faces a major obstacle: the government has politically disqualified her from holding public office.
Machado, a 56-year-old liberal, won with at least 1.5 million votes, 93% of the total, in the opposition primaries held on Sunday, after the dissemination of a second bulletin with 65% of the minutes counted.
“This is not the end, but it is the beginning of the end,” he told fans on Sunday after claiming victory. “We are starting the new campaign that will have the same resounding success.”
Why did you participate in the primary?
Political disqualification is an old weapon of Chavismo to get its adversaries out of the way.
The organizers of the primary, which was self-managed without the assistance of the National Electoral Council (CNE), assure that the sanctions are “unconstitutional” and therefore allowed the participation of disqualified people like Machado.
An old disqualification against Machado, which expired in 2016, was extended in June until 2030. The Comptroller’s Office – empowered by law to disqualify officials through administrative means – linked her to “a corruption plot” when she was a deputy. Machado denies it.
The Constitution establishes that only a “definitively final” judicial ruling prevents aspiring to the presidency.
Can it be appealed?
Juan Rafalli, constitutional lawyer, explains that it is an issue that must be resolved through politics and not in justice, which the opposition accuses of serving the government.
“The moment you go to the Comptroller’s Office or the Supreme Court you are validating those instances, when we know the answer,” which will be in favor of the government, he tells AFP.
He also rules out going to international entities because he assures that their resolutions will not be respected either.
“There is an important game of pressure coming,” says Ricardo Ríos, political analyst and director of the firm Poder y Economía.
The Comptroller’s Office can also lift the sanction unilaterally.
What role does the US play? –
The primary was held five days after the signing of an agreement in Barbados between the government and the opposition that set the presidential elections for the second half of 2024, with observation by the European Union and other international actors.
The United States responded by easing oil sanctions against the country for six months, although it conditioned it on the lifting of disqualifications, a thorny issue on which Chavismo does not want to give in.
And the pressure has a ceiling because “Americans are in need of oil and it is not easy for them to restore the sanctions that prevented the Venezuelan government from negotiating and selling direct oil,” according to Ríos.
What does Chavismo say?
President Nicolás Maduro described the process as “fraud” and estimated participation at no more than 700,000 voters. “We respect that group (of voters) and I appeal to them: do not be fooled, do not allow yourself to be led into an adventure of hate,” he said.
Since the signing of the agreement in Barbados, the government has also insisted that the document talks about allowing candidates “that comply with the law.”
“Whoever is disqualified, is disqualified,” said Diosdado Cabello, considered number two of Chavismo, who denounced the opposition for “inflating” figures.
Ríos rules out that “yesterday’s results are enough pressure for Chavismo to feel threatened.”
The result of the primary has also “awakened a certain idea of hope for citizens and this can be counterproductive for the ruling party,” says political consultant Pablo Quintero. “Strategically, it is not convenient for them to enable it.”
The opposition?
Machado faces resistance within the traditional opposition, of which she has been highly critical.
The main parties and leaders have recognized his victory and expressed support.
It will not be known if Machado can face Maduro at the polls until he tries to register his candidacy and the CNE system accepts or rejects it.
Machado “has to play the role of candidate for an important time and only when she is not allowed, look for a complementary political alternative,” says Ríos. Before the primary, the candidates met to discuss an eventual Plan B, but nothing came of it. They promised unity.
* AFP journalist.
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