Donald Trump faces an electoral rebuke in the United States midterms on Tuesday, November 3, with polling figures pointing to losses in both houses of Congress. Romuald Sciora, director of the Observatoire politique et géostratégique des États-Unis at IRIS, stated that the elections look lost for the Republicans.
The Republican campaign enters Tuesday under the weight of presidential impopularity and voter discontent. According to a Siena University poll for the New York Times, Donald Trump’s approval rating has plunged to 34 percent, marking the lowest support recorded for any American president ahead of midterm elections since 1946. That domestic erosion stems largely from inflation and the surge in fuel prices. Those economic pressures followed fallout from the war in Iran, alongside higher customs duties and an unfulfilled promise to end the war in Ukraine.
Financial controversies have compounded the administration’s political liabilities. Roughly 90 percent of Americans express concern over government corruption, according to a poll for Fox News. Seeking to distance themselves, Republican congressional candidates largely omitted the president’s name from campaign advertisements, featuring it in fewer than one percent of their television spots.
The financial scale of the contest reflects the high stakes involved. Adimpact data indicates the cycle could be the most expensive in the history of American democracy, reaching approximately $12 billion in advertising expenditures. The Senate race in Texas alone consumed $500 million in ad spending, featuring a competitive duel between Republican state attorney general Ken Paxton and Democratic challenger James Talarico.
Republican efforts ahead of Tuesday also relied on procedural interventions. Sciora explained that Donald Trump attempted to shape the electorate through electoral redistricting and stricter citizenship verification rules intended to purge potential non-citizens from voter registries. Such measures collided with domestic practicalities, given that the United States lacks a national identity card, relying instead on driver’s licenses, birth certificates, or passports—documents missing or inaccessible for many citizens.
Institutional forecasts point to a shift in Washington’s balance of power. Harvard University’s Electit prediction tool assigns the Democratic Party a 96 percent probability of capturing the House of Representatives and a 79 percent chance of winning Senate control.
| Institution / Metric | Forecast / Data Point | Source Attribution |
|---|---|---|
| House of Representatives Control | 96% probability for Democrats | Electit (Harvard University) |
| Senate Control | 79% probability for Democrats | Electit (Harvard University) |
| Presidential Approval Rating | 34% | Siena University / New York Times |
| Total Midterm Ad Spend | $12 billion | Adimpact |
Contestation of the electoral process began months prior to the vote. Sciora noted that Donald Trump laid the groundwork during an address before Mount Rushmore on July 3, on the eve of the 250th anniversary of American independence. In that speech, the American president warned that a communist danger threatened the country from within, followed by later claims that the Chinese had interfered with American elections for years, moves designed to strip legitimacy from the results of the urns this November 3.
While analysts do not anticipate a repeat of the 2020 Capitol assault, experts expect tensions between the executive and legislative branches. Sciora anticipates friction between the executive branch and the legislative branch, transforming Donald Trump into a “canard boiteux” as preparations for the 2028 presidential cycle commence.
