President Donald Trump voiced growing frustration Wednesday during a NATO summit in Ankara, accusing Iranian negotiators of lying and cheating. This escalation follows a massive U.S. response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Retribution in the Strait of Hormuz
The current military friction centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. According to ABC News, President Trump characterized the latest U.S. strikes as “retribution” for Iran’s bombing of three commercial ships.
The White House is leaning into a strategy of aggressive deterrence. Trump issued a stark warning via social media, stating, “If it happens again, it will get much worse!”
However, the administration’s digital communication has faced scrutiny. ABC News reported that an image shared by Trump, purportedly showing explosions in Iran, appears to be from a June incident in Tehran and was likely altered using AI.
A Fractured Power Structure in Tehran
Washington is not just fighting a military battle; it is struggling to find a reliable partner for diplomacy. The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during initial U.S.-Israeli attacks on Feb. 28 created a power vacuum that has left the Iranian government fragmented.
While Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father, Fox News notes that Mojtaba has not appeared publicly since the attack. U.S. assessments cited by Reuters have described authority as dispersed among senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and powerful civilian officials.
Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American journalist and editor of the Iran So Far Away Substack, argues that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has become the dominant force. The danger for U.S. diplomats is that the person across the table may not actually speak for the entire regime.
The person who is negotiating with the U.S. is not necessarily someone who is endorsed by the others… So really, it’s the IRGC. And within the IRGC, whoever signs the deal is not necessarily signing on behalf of everybody else. They’re signing on behalf of themselves.
Banafsheh Zand, journalist and editor
The IRGC’s Internal Rivalries
The internal struggle for control in Tehran is split between several competing power centers. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander, has emerged as one of the country’s most powerful surviving political figures leading the negotiating delegation. However, he is not the only player.
The landscape of Iranian power currently involves a precarious balance between military and diplomatic wings:
This fragmentation means that any agreement reached with Ghalibaf or Zarif could be undermined by Vahidi or Qaani. As Zand noted to Fox News, the political hardliners have been largely pushed aside, leaving the IRGC to operate as a collection of individual interests rather than a monolithic entity.
The Collapse of the Nuclear Deal
The diplomatic window is closing rapidly. Trump’s rhetoric at the NATO summit suggests he has lost faith in the possibility of a negotiated settlement.
I don’t know if we’re going to have a deal. We may just do it without a deal. These people, they lie and they cheat.
Donald Trump, President of the United States
The stakes are no longer just about nuclear centrifuges but about the very survival of the Islamic Republic. Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggests that Tehran’s leaders may view escalation as a necessity for their own survival, even as their military capabilities are degraded.
For the U.S., the risk is a deal that exists only on paper. If the IRGC commanders do not endorse the signatures of the civilian negotiators, the U.S. may find itself providing sanctions relief to a regime that continues to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
With the IRGC operating as a fragmented but dominant force, the path forward likely involves more “retribution” strikes rather than a return to the negotiating table. The primary uncertainty remains whether Mojtaba Khamenei will ever emerge from the shadows to consolidate power or if the IRGC will continue to govern through a series of competing commanders.
