Finland has decided to apply for NATO membership, President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced on Sunday.
Until now, the Nordic country was rather opposed to the idea of joining the Alliance, but the war in Ukraine has resulted in a historic leap in support for NATO membership to better protect itself from Russia, with whom the country shares a border of 1,300 kilometers. According to the latest polls, the share of Finns wanting to join the alliance has exceeded three-quarters, or triple the level before the war in Ukraine.
“This indicates that Finland no longer feels protected by its status of neutrality, which was not strict neutrality, i.e. non-participation in a military alliance”deciphers Tanguy de Wilde d’Estmael, professor of political science and international relations at the Catholic University of Louvain (UCL). “From the Russian point of view, any enlargement of NATO was considered a threat against them. Finland’s decision will reinforce their actions. Russian rhetoric is well-oiled. It will be used to justify their posture, as she had done for Ukraine.”
The invasion of Ukraine had for a time been justified by the fact that the country wanted to join NATO and that Russia therefore risked being confronted with the Atlanticist organisation. Here, Helsinki’s desire to join NATO is once again viewed with suspicion. Vladimir Putin said it was a “error” because there would be “no threat to the security of Finland”.
“It’s not over yet”tempers the expert in geopolitics. “There are still a whole series of conditions for membership to be full and complete.” To be admitted, the country must for example be accepted unanimously by the members of the Atlantic Alliance. But here, Turkey has already expressed its hostility to this possible membership. “Turkey is trying to be in a middle position, between Russia and Ukraine, to possibly foster negotiations.”
The timing could also play against Finland, as some Atlanticist members may want to wait until the end of the war to decide. At last, “there could be a radical change in public opinion with a withdrawal of candidacy”concludes the UCL professor.