Xi Jinping’s Strategic Playbook for Navigating Trump’s Second Term
As the 2024 US election reshapes the global political landscape, Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing for a high-stakes chess match with Donald Trump. Unlike Trump’s unpredictable and often contradictory approach to foreign policy, Xi’s strategy is marked by precision and resolve. Beijing has made its intentions clear: it aims not only to respond to Trump’s moves but to exploit them to China’s advantage.
China’s Confidence in a Shifting Global Order
Chinese analysts attribute trump’s resurgence to a global wave of populism and nationalism. Though, Beijing believes it has cracked the code of Trump’s tactics and is ready to outmaneuver his management. The Chinese leadership is confident that the world in 2025 is vastly different from 2017. Domestically, Xi’s political standing is stronger, and the economy, despite recent challenges, is more self-reliant and resilient. In contrast,the US is seen as economically fragile and politically fractured,with its global influence waning,notably in Asia and the Global south.
Xi’s Business-like approach to Trump
Xi has signaled that his relationship with Trump will be strictly transactional, likened to a “Don Corleone-style” negotiation. He has no intention of forming a personal bond with Trump and is prepared to retaliate swiftly and decisively to gain leverage. This approach was evident when Beijing declined Trump’s invitation for Xi to attend his inauguration. However, china is also open to dialog, seeking to avoid new tariffs while struggling to decipher Trump’s true intentions through back channels.
Beijing’s Three-Pronged Strategy
China’s response to Trump’s policies is structured around three key strategies: retaliation, adaptation, and diversification.
Retaliation: Imposing Costs on the US
Beijing has developed a toolkit of export controls, investment restrictions, and regulatory probes to counter US policies. While China cannot match Trump’s tariffs dollar-for-dollar, it aims to inflict maximum pain on US companies. For instance, in late 2024, China blocked exports of critical minerals for chipmaking, disrupted the supply chain for US-made drones, and launched an antitrust examination into Nvidia. These actions serve as both a warning and a bargaining chip for future negotiations.
Adaptation: Strengthening the Domestic Economy
Since autumn 2023, Beijing has rolled out aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to bolster businesses and consumers. While the results have been mixed, this policy shift was designed with a potential trade war in mind. By shoring up its domestic economy, China aims to withstand external pressures and maintain its competitive edge.
diversification: Expanding Global Ties
China is actively diversifying its economic partnerships to reduce reliance on the US. During a visit to Peru, Xi inaugurated a deep-water port that could transform trade relations with Latin America, a critical source of food, energy, and minerals. additionally, Xi participated in meetings with leaders of major international economic organizations, emphasizing China’s commitment to global stability and opposition to protectionism.
The Risks of a High-Stakes Standoff
Despite Beijing’s confidence,the road ahead is fraught with risks. Both china and the Trump administration believe they hold the upper hand, setting the stage for a volatile and destabilizing dynamic.At best, the two sides might achieve a temporary ceasefire on economic issues. However, tensions over Taiwan, the South China Sea, technological competition, and nuclear modernization remain unresolved. In this new era of geopolitical rivalry, the Cold War seems almost quaint by comparison.
The writer is a professor at Georgetown University and a senior adviser with The Asia Group. He served on the US National Security Council staff from 2009 to 2015.
