The fifth wave of the epidemic has heated up in recent days. Hong Kong added 52,523 confirmed cases yesterday (4th), and the cumulative total has exceeded 400,000. Xu Shuchang, Chair Professor of Respiratory System at CUHK, who is also an expert advisor to the government, said on a radio program this morning (5th) that he believed that about 15% of the population in Hong Kong had already been infected, and the number of confirmed cases would only continue to rise.
Xu pointed out that with the recent forced inspection of buildings, the infection rate is as high as 10% to 20%. Therefore, it is estimated that about 15% of the people in Hong Kong have been recruited. Therefore, the daily number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong must continue to rise. He also said that according to a mathematical model made by epidemiologists, the epidemic will peak in the middle of this month, and it will run rampant for a period of time.
Xu Shuchang believes that the government should consider when to carry out “compulsory inspections for all”. Since relevant measures are generally not implemented at the peak of the epidemic, the ideal time should be in the early stage of the epidemic to quickly cut off the chain of transmission. There are not enough isolation facilities in China, so the “zero” should be achieved only when the confirmed cases drop and cooperate with the stay-at-home order.
He also pointed out that no matter how many isolation facilities are built, it will not be enough, and even if there are “108,000” beds, the number of patients found by the nationwide compulsory screening will certainly far exceed this number. At that time, the elderly and chronically ill patients will be given priority to be admitted to the hospital, and the living environment may not be able to be isolated at home. As for patients with mild or asymptomatic symptoms, if the situation permits, they can still choose to isolate at home.
“Hong Kong Epidemic Panic” page:http://hk.on.cc/fea/hkdisease