Susanne Dahlgren, a longtime analyst and contributor focused on Yemen, discussed the strategic fallout of the United Arab Emirates’ exit from the conflict and the subsequent resurgence of Houthi military actions during an episode of the MERIP Podcast hosted by executive director James Ryan. The conversation centered on Dahlgren’s July 8, 2026, Current Analysis essay for MERIP titled “Yemen After the Saudi-Emirati Split,” examining how regional power realignments continue to shape the protracted civil war.
The Saudi-Emirati Split and the Hadhramaut Skirmish
The geopolitical shift stems from a military flare-up last December, when the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) briefly expelled Saudi and Saudi-backed militias from the oil-producing Hadhramaut region. Saudi counteroffensives forced the STC to retreat, triggering the dramatic departure of the UAE from Yemen’s civil war after more than a decade of direct military involvement.
According to Dahlgren’s analysis, Riyadh has since pursued a dual-track strategy. On one hand, Saudi Arabia is working to consolidate control and influence over the diverse factions competing for power across the territory of the former South Yemen. Simultaneously, Riyadh has engaged in secret talks with the Houthis, who control the capital city of Sana’a and surrounding northern territories. Dahlgren reads these diplomatic and military maneuvers as an attempt by Riyadh to establish a centralized modus operandi for managing the conflict and protecting its own vital interests in regional oil production and maritime shipping lanes.
Houthi Escalation and Humanitarian Toll
The fragile diplomatic landscape shifted abruptly on July 13, 2026, when the Houthis launched a ballistic missile attack targeting Saudi Arabia. The strike was followed by drone attacks directed at oil facilities and coordinated attempts to restrict commercial shipping traffic through the critical Bab al-Mandab Strait, abruptly ending a period of relative de-escalation.
During the podcast, Ryan and Dahlgren examined the strategic motivations behind the Houthis’ decision to reopen hostilities. The renewed violence carries severe consequences for the local population, compounding an extraordinary food insecurity crisis that leaves millions of Yemenis struggling to meet basic nutritional needs while a comprehensive political framework remains elusive.
Unresolved Regional Dynamics
As Saudi Arabia attempts to secure its southern border and manage competing factions in the south while responding to renewed Houthi missile and drone strikes, the path toward a sustainable political settlement remains uncertain. Analysts and regional observers continue to monitor whether backchannel diplomacy can restart in the wake of the Bab al-Mandab shipping disruptions or if the conflict will settle back into open confrontation.
