2024-03-12 15:51:25
Is Yemen heading towards a military escalation with the United States and its allies?
The picture appears blurry and unclear as to what things will lead to in Yemen, in light of the continued Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, at a time when they are mobilizing militarily along the internal fronts.
Officials and experts believe that the Houthi-Iranian strategy in Yemen is heading towards military escalation with the United States and its allies, warning that the situation may get out of control in the event of large human or material losses.
The Yemeni parties have so far adhered – unofficially – to a peace map (in three stages) that was agreed upon under the auspices of the United Nations, and was the result of Saudi and Omani efforts over the past months.
Chairman of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council during a previous meeting in Riyadh with the UN envoy (Saba)
In parallel, a source in the Yemeni Ministry of Defense told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Houthi terrorist group took advantage of the events in Gaza and its attacks in the Red Sea to re-mobilize the tribesmen and send more forces towards Marib, which is rich in oil.
The Yemeni government says that the Houthi group is using the war in Gaza as a means to escape from the UN-led peace entitlements, in addition to trying to whitewash its ongoing crimes against the Yemenis, including blocking roads, preventing the export of oil and the siege of Taiz.
The UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, announced in late December that he had reached commitments from the Yemeni government and the Houthis towards peace, and to formulate a road map and support its implementation.
The envoy spoke at the time that the parties had reached a commitment to a set of measures that included implementing a ceasefire that included all of Yemen, measures to improve living conditions, and engaging in preparations to resume an inclusive political process under the auspices of the United Nations. But Grundberg admitted that mediation efforts in Yemen cannot be completely isolated from what is happening regionally, and he said in previous statements that “the escalation of regional tensions related to the war in Gaza, and especially the military escalation in the Red Sea, leads to a slowdown in the pace of peace efforts in Yemen,” expressing He expressed his fears of “increasing threats of a return to fighting in the country.”
The Houthi group vowed to continue naval attacks, claiming to support the Palestinians in Gaza (AFP)
For his part, Dr. Abdulaziz bin Saqr, head of the Gulf Research Center, believes that Saudi Arabia “is concerned with the continuation of the peace process in Yemen,” but “the escalation of the Houthi confrontation with the Americans in an election year may put the situation out of control, especially in the event of large human or material losses.” ».
In turn, a senior Yemeni official described the current scene as “murky,” indicating that “the country is living in a state of neither war nor peace.”
The official, who refused to reveal his identity, added in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, saying: “The situation is dark and unclear so far.” In response to a question about the visit of a member of the Presidential Leadership Council to the British capital, London, and whether there were discussions about supporting legitimacy, he replied by saying: “The visit is normal and was arranged before the events at the Red Sea.”
Muhammad Abdel Salam, the chief Houthi negotiator, confirmed in a previous interview with Asharq Al-Awsat that the peace scene in Yemen “is progressing well, whether since the start of the UN truce in April 2022, corresponding to the month of Ramadan at that time, or also through discussions with… The Saudi side is sponsored by Oman, and it is going well so far.”
Great Saudi efforts were made during the last period to bring the views of the Yemeni parties closer together and reach a peace map (SPA)
Houthi reassurances are matched by repeated warnings from the legitimate government that the Houthis are not serious about peace, and are working to buy time, rearrange their ranks, and then attack again on the internal fronts.
Returning to the source in the Yemeni Ministry of Defense, he confirmed that “the Houthis will not stop attacking ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.” The source, who preferred to remain anonymous, added: “The Houthi continues to mobilize and train, taking advantage of the events in Gaza and the tribes’ sympathy for the Palestinian cause, after he had lost the people’s support and reached a state in which he lost his popularity.”
He continued: “He has regained his popularity again by appearing as a defender of Gaza, and this helps him mobilize more (…). He mobilized in the name of supporting Gaza and directed them to Ma’rib, which he says goes through the road to Gaza, but the national army and the tribesmen are waiting for them.” He adds: “If legitimacy receives military and economic support from the coalition, the Houthis will be eliminated in the field (…). We know them well. They do not abide by any agreement. How can we expect peace from militias that were founded on murder, devastation and destruction?
The German frigate “Hessen” confronted two Houthi marches in the Red Sea in its first operation (AFP)
Things are heading towards military escalation
Dr. Abdulaziz bin Saqr, head of the Gulf Research Centre, based in Jeddah, believes that matters are heading towards field military escalation with the United States and its allies within the Iranian-Houthi strategy in Yemen.
Bin Saqr pointed out in an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awsat that “there is Houthi insistence on continuing and escalating naval attacks, and a declared intention to deepen human and material losses, and American deterrence and defense methods still have no effect on the Iranian strategy in Yemen.”
Dr.. Abdulaziz bin Saqr, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center (Asharq Al-Awsat)
He continued: “The American air strikes deep inside Yemen are still limited in nature and intensity and are no longer an element of the threat to Houthi control over the country. In order for the American escalation to be effective, it must include striking the Houthi regime’s entire military, security, and political infrastructure, and this is what will change the Iranian-Houthi calculations.”
Conditions for ending the naval confrontation
The head of the Gulf Research Center spoke about a clear change in the ceiling of the Houthi-Iranian conditions for ending the naval confrontation in Yemen, indicating that the first condition is ending the fighting in Gaza.
The second condition – according to Bin Saqr – is “the withdrawal of all American and Western naval vessels from the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea region.” These are “impossible conditions for a major country like the United States,” as he put it.
The Houthi group claimed responsibility for launching 403 missiles and drones in 96 attacks against cargo and military ships, while the group acknowledged receiving more than 450 American and British raids. The United States launched an international coalition last December, which it called “Guardian of Prosperity.” To protect navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, before launching its strikes on land starting on January 12 of last year.
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