Zhang Wenhong: The infection rate in major Chinese cities will reach 80% during the Spring Festival

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Zhang Wenhong, director of the China National Center for Infectious Diseases, pointed out that the infection rate of this wave of epidemics in China is already very high. Many large cities have exceeded 50%, and the Lunar New Year will reach 80%. He called on the public to reduce year-end gatherings, which can greatly curb the spread of the epidemic. Many places in China announced the results of infection rate surveys, and half of the people in Hainan Province were infected.

Central News Agency comprehensively reported on Chinese media that Zhang Wenhong expressed concern about the return home wave that will emerge during the Lunar New Year in an expert video lecture on “Scientific Epidemic Prevention and Health for the People” on the 29th.

He said that the Spring Festival is coming soon, and the infection rate of this wave of epidemics in China is already very high. “The infection rate in many big cities has exceeded 50%, and it will reach 60%, 70%, and 80% by the Spring Festival.”

Zhang Wenhong pointed out that because many rural areas and small cities have not yet had large-scale infections, if family members have not been infected, there has not been a major epidemic in the local area, because the gathering of people during the Spring Festival will definitely increase the risk of contracting the virus.

He called on people who choose to return to their hometown during the Spring Festival to reduce gatherings, especially those who have the habit of year-end dinners in their hometowns, which should be greatly reduced; “If the gathering of more than 100 people can be reduced, the rapid spread of the epidemic can be greatly curbed. .”

The current epidemic in China is coming fast and violently. Zeng Guang, the former chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, pointed out that this wave of Omicron storms has progressed faster than expected. He estimated that the number of infected people in Beijing may have exceeded 80%, and may even be higher.

In addition, in China, where it is difficult to accurately grasp the infection data, local governments have instead conducted questionnaires on the infection rate. Recently, many places have released data. Among them, the estimated infection rate in Hainan Province has reached 50%, the infection rate in Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province is between 30% and 35%, and the infection rate in Sichuan Province is as high as 63.52%.

Li Wenxiu, deputy director of the Hainan Provincial Health and Health Commission, said at a press conference of the Provincial Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters on Friday that the number of new infections in the province has been at a high level and fluctuated recently, and the province’s estimated infection rate has reached 50%. The surveyed infection rate in the city is 57.1% and 52.8%, and the overall infection peak has passed. Another 12 cities and counties are in a rapid climbing period, with infection rates ranging from 25% to 37.5%.

Li Wenxiu said that from the 19th to the 25th, the urban infection rate in Hainan exceeded 40%, and the rural infection rate was about 24%. The currently prevalent strain in Hainan is mainly BA.5.2, and the symptoms after infection with other mutant strains are relatively mild.

At present, the number of visits to fever clinics and fever clinics in Hainan Province is still relatively high, and the positive detection rate has risen from 11.31% on the 11th to 47.01% at the peak on the 19th. To 30.61%, the number of positive patients has entered a plateau.

Li Wenxiu said that with the coming of the New Year’s Day and Spring Festival holidays, the increase in urban and rural mobility, and the adjustment of immigration policies and other factors, the spread of the epidemic will be promoted to a certain extent, resulting in multiple small peaks in Hainan, bringing new infections and severe risks.

The Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention launched two rounds of questionnaire surveys on the 17th and 24th. Sichuan CDC released the results of the questionnaire on the evening of the 25th. The infection rate in the province was 63.52%, which was 16.59 percentage points higher than the first round of survey results on the 19th (46.93%). The peak period of positive detection was concentrated from the 12th to the 23rd. The number of new infections per day is currently on the decline.

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