2023-12-14 14:41:37
Major U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Thursday (14th), a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled that it would end its recent aggressive interest rate hikes and hinted at at least three interest rate cuts next year.
before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose nearly 40 points or nearly 0.1%,Nasdaq Composite Indexrose more than 90 points or nearly 0.6%,S&P 500 Indexrose nearly 0.5%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose more than 2%.
U.S. stocks are expected to continue their gains after the dovish signal from the Fed sent a bullish signal to the market, and the outside world is optimistic that inflationary pressures are easing. On the other hand, after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged as expected,EURHolding on to earlier gains.
In terms of economic data, the latest data released by the United States on Thursday showed that the number of initial unemployment benefit claims fell to 202,000 last week, lower than economists expected, and the number of continuing unemployment benefits dropped to 1.876 million, also lower than expected, highlighting the job market Still solid. In addition, US retail sales increased by 0.3% in November, far exceeding the previous value and market expectations of -0.1%, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive again.
At the last monetary policy meeting of the year, the Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. At the same time, it lowered its forecasts for next year’s economy, overall inflation, and interest rates in its quarterly economic outlook, and estimated that the job market would remain stable. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that interest rates are close to their peak and discussions on easing monetary policy have begun. It is worth noting that the Fed dot plot shows that it will cut interest rates three times next year, one more than in September.
As the Fed signaled a policy shift, the bank controlled soaring inflation without causing a recession or causing significant damage to the job market.In addition, Ball’s lack of resistance to investors’ growing expectations for a rate cut next year triggered a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury bond prices and willDow Jones Industrial Averagepushed to a record high.
Jefferies analyst W. Brad Bechtel said: “The Fed’s policy shift has officially come out and the market continues to digest the news. The dot plot suggests a 3-digit rate cut (75 basis points), while the market currently indicates a rate cut of about 140 basis points. So the two still need to coordinate, but Ball had the opportunity to drive down market pricing, but he certainly didn’t take action.”
Foreign media surveys show that investors predictS&P 500 IndexIt will rise to around 4,835 by the end of next year, up from the last survey before the Fed’s decision. But the gains, about 3% from current levels, reflect investor skepticism about how much U.S. stocks can rebound after rising more than 20% this year.
As of 22:00 Taipei time on Thursday (14th): Focus stocks:
Tesla (TSLA-US) shares rose 1.97% to $244.00 per share in early trading
According to electric vehicle website Electrek, Tesla and Uber (UBER-US) has reached a partnership that will provide Uber drivers with electric vehicles at a discount, saving them up to $3,000. This alliance will support Uber’s continued commitment to vehicle electrification.
Amazon (AMZN-US) shares rose 0.37% in early trading to $149.39 per share
Europe’s top court ruled on Thursday (14th) that Amazon does not need to pay Luxembourg 250 million in back paymentsEUR ($273 million) in taxes, which means that EU Antitrust Commissioner Margrethe Vestager’s crackdown on multinational companies has failed. The decision of the Court of Justice of the European Union is final.
Adobe (ADBE-US) shares fell 6.71% in early trading to $582.40 per share
Creative software company Adobe recently released a lower-than-expected financial forecast for 2024, and its stock price fell nearly 4% before the market opened on Thursday. The company forecast next year’s revenue to be between US$21.3 billion and US$21.5 billion, lower than Wall Street analysts’ expectations of US$21.73 billion; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between US$17.60 and US$18, lower than analysts’ expectations. $18.
Today’s key economic data:
- The U.S. import price index in November reported a monthly rate of -0.4%, expected -0.8%, and the previous value -0.6%
- The U.S. export price index in November was -0.9% on a monthly basis, expected -1.0%, and the previous value -0.9%
- U.S. core retail sales in November reported a monthly rate of 0.2%, expected -0.1%, and the previous value of 0.1%
- U.S. retail sales in November reported a monthly rate of 0.3%, expected – 0.1%, and previous value – 0.2%
- The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 202,000, compared with the expected 220,000, and the previous value of 221,000
- The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 187.6, 1.887 million expected, and the previous value was 1.856 million
Wall Street analysis:
As the Fed signals a policy shift, some big players in the bond community are divided over how high U.S. debt can go. According to Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital,10-year U.S. Treasury yieldIt will fall towards the low end of the 3% range, and the Fed may lower its cash rate target by a full two percentage points next year.
Former bond king Bill Gross dismissed the optimism, saying yields were close to where they should be at 4%.Gross, who once managed Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund, posted on the social media platform 10-year U.S. Treasury yieldPredictions of a drop to 3% next year are also “ridiculous”.
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