2023-10-06 07:18:45
[기고] The new industrial revolution calls for a new national security agenda focusing on ‘key minerals’ (Stephen Blank, columnist at The Hill)
O Decision-makers must recognize that the world has entered the threshold of a new ‘industrial revolution’ and fundamentally redesign national security strategies and policies in line with the changing times.
– After the war in Ukraine, the sustainability of the defense sector and military forces around the world has become increasingly dependent on high-precision weapons with new technologies, and the importance of securing rare earth elements such as cobalt, lithium, and thorium required to manufacture these weapons has increased. Awareness of its importance has expanded.
– At the same time, awareness has expanded that the ‘green revolution’, which involves moving away from fossil fuels and switching to electric vehicles, is essential to saving the planet.
– In November 2022, the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted a declaration to stop sales of internal combustion engine vehicles in Europe and North America by 2035 and globally by 2040. Electric vehicles are expected to overtake internal combustion engine vehicles with a 50% market share by 2030. This is approximately 60 million electric vehicles, which is approximately 10 times the number of 6.6 million electric vehicles worldwide as of the end of 2021.
As it becomes increasingly clear that reliable access to minerals and rare earths is essential to the military security, economy, and well-being of the United States, its allies, and other nations around the world, access to these resources is becoming a critical part of the new national security agenda.
– China occupies an overwhelming share of rare earths and minerals and dominates the global market for electric vehicles and batteries, so the plight of the United States and its allies is obvious. Moreover, China’s economic strategy is seen as a predatory attempt to establish an oligopoly in Europe. China, aware that foreign resistance will grow stronger, is making efforts to solidify its leading position in these economic and technological fields.
– As a result, a global ‘arms race’ is taking place in which the United States and its allies in Asia and Europe strive to reduce dependence on China and build alternative sources of supply in these areas. This arms race is expanding globally; for example, the United States is considering building battery production plants in two African countries.
– China is prepared to weaponize its control over the mineral sector vital to renewable energy, a threat that has particular relevance to the electric vehicle and battery sectors given China’s share of over 70% in refining cobalt, rare earths and graphite. . Additionally, China’s questionable economic strategy shows that the country is prepared to weaponize its market power for political gain.
– The United States and its allies can learn two major lessons from these developments.
– The first lesson is that we are on the threshold of a new industrial revolution with significant long-term implications for human life and the health of the planet. Denying the urgency of this challenge undermines the security of the United States and its allies and puts our planet at risk.
– The second lesson is that the interests involved in ensuring a continuous supply of rare earths and minerals need to sensitize the direction of national security policy to critical issues in developing countries such as Africa, Central Asia, and Latin America, which have large quantities of rare earths. There must be a shift toward strengthening cooperation in various fields.
– In the wake of the war in Ukraine, China and Russia are stepping up efforts to expand their power and influence in Africa, including efforts to strengthen their leadership in the mineral sector.
– In fact, Russia has abundant reserves of 17 metals with electronic and magnetic properties essential for cutting-edge electronic devices, and is seeking to utilize these resources by significantly increasing domestic and foreign production by securing overseas resources. Given the strengthening alliance between the two countries, a new front may be established in the international economic war.
– Decision-makers and planners around the world must commit to radically reimagining strategies and policies to take into account these unfamiliar and urgent challenges and their long-term implications. Failure to do so will have very long-term negative impacts globally.
Source: The Hill
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