2023-05-18 17:29:25
<오늘의 미나리>
1. Macro
Opening status of key indicators
The stock market started off mixed
U.S. Treasury yields rise
10-year and 2-year bonds rise
1 month 5.595%
Crude Oil Down, Gas Up Slightly
Gold declines, coin around $27,000
Unemployment Claims/Philadelphia Manufacturing Index
May Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.4… better than expected
Is employment slowing in the eastern US?
Philly Employment Index -0.2 -> -8.6
Follow-up of debt ceiling negotiations
Biden “No Default, Productive Negotiation”
Conference on Sunday, the 21st… Expectations for an agreement are rising
Possibility of passing agreement before June 1st
Debt ceiling will increase
Pimco “avoiding government bonds maturing in early June”
“Stocks may rally slightly.”
Shares plummet after debt ceiling agreement in 2011
Concerns about possible Fed liquidity contraction
◆G7 meeting held in Japan
Opening of the G7 Summit on the 19th
Biden arrives in Japan
G7 announces statement condemning Russia and China
Ukrainian President Online Attendance
Summit Diplomacy G7
Prime Minister Kishida Requests Japanese Semiconductor Investment
G7 meeting attended by Biden
Official opening in Hiroshima, Japan
Other than 7 countries involved in the US-China conflict
Korea, Australia, India, Brazil, etc. are also paying attention
Economic Crisis, Inflation Key Issues
De facto participation in Ukraine, additional sanctions against Russia?
Discuss security cooperation including strengthening nuclear sanctions
U.S. China investment restrictions spread? Xi Jinping Interview Review
◆International Finance Institute “Global Debt Highest in History”
International Finance Institute (IIF) report publication
$305 Trillion in Global Debt, All-Time High
Debt increased by $8.3 trillion in 1Q alone
The combination of high debt and high interest rates increases risk
“Worst Credit Levels Since 2008”
“More zombie companies are emerging… 14% of already listed companies”
“Concerns about aging, health care costs, and climate costs”
Defense spending also increases. Government-corporate credit impact
Debt in emerging markets is $100 trillion, the highest ever
China, Mexico, Brazil, India, Türkiye, etc.
“Lending from local banks in some sectors will sharply decrease”
“Surge of zombie companies, medical and IT sector concerns”
Wall Street market analysis
Debt ceiling-interest rate controversy continues
Pictet “Fixed Inflation… Difficult to Cut in September”
Commercial real estate concerns are growing
1Q first drop in 10 years ..
$3.6 trillion of outstanding CRE loans as of 4Q
Banks hold more than 60%… risk
Working from home, vacancy increases due to closure
Moody’s “1% decline…10% in recession”
Will the Fed’s reverse repo surge continue?
Citi “Cash parking will increase and bank deposits will increase”
“Market Liquidity Decreased”
TD Securities “Concerns about the possibility of reserves”
Pimco “Depending on the debt limit conflict, the bond may go to 10%”
Barclays “If you don’t give a reverse repo, you can change the austerity policy”
BOA “Lack of liquidity when debt ceiling is reached”
“High leverage or no cash hit”
“Need to respond with high-quality defensive stock”
Kobeshi Letter “Stock winds to reach 4200 by June”
◆(9:30) Michael Barr/(10:00) Logan Speech
2. Performance
◆(Jangjeon) Walmart (WMT) / Alibaba (BABA) / Grab Holdings (GRAB) / Bath and Body Works (BBWI) / Canada Goose (GOOS)
◆Wal-Mart (WMT) earnings announcement
Sales of 152.3 billion, EPS of $1.47
better-than-expected performance
Grocery Division Savings
Walmart US Division
7.4% increase in same-store sales
Customers looking for a lower price
Walmart demand increased
Sales increased by 7.6% in one year
Operating profit increased by 17.3%
Doug McMillan Walmart CEO
“Strong quarter…online up 26%”
Annual Guidance Increase
Expected to increase net sales by 3.5% this year
US consumption seen through Walmart
“buy less, buy less”
Walmart CFO “Remarkable consumer elasticity”
“Consumer burden confirmed by economic indicators”
“Consumer Spending Down Since February”
Impact of partial government support termination
Walmart’s key uncertainty this year
also inflation
Alibaba (BABA) sales 208.2 billion yuan (209 billion)
EPS 10.71 yuan (9.46) Mixed performance
2% increase in sales compared to the previous year
“Slow start to the year, March positive”
Separately spun off cloud department and listed
ChatGPT style AI is also piloted
◆Grab Holdings (GRAB) sales of 525 million dollars (492 million)
EPS -$0.06 (-0.06) above sales only
◆Bath and Body Works (BBWI) sales of 1.4 billion dollars (1.39 billion)
EPS $0.33 (0.27) above expectations
◆Canada Goose (GOOS) sales of 293 million dollars (192 million)
EPS $0.14 (0.05) above expectations
◆(Janghoo) Applied Materials (AMAT)/Ross Store (ROST)
Applied Materials (AMAT) after market close
Roth Store (ROST) Performance Disclosure
3. News
First TikTok ban in Montana
Montana bans TikTok completely
Effective in January 2024. First case in the US
Republican Governor “Protecting Sensitive Privacy”
Possibility of lawsuit against TikTok for “infringement of Article 1 of the Constitution”
Net Choice “Trampling Freedom with Anti-China Sentiment”
WeChat and Telegram will also be blocked from June
TikTok download banned, fined $10,000 a day
Focus on Federal Government Decisions
◆Bank Hearing + Request for JP Morgan FRC Acquisition Investigation + Banking Social Media Advisory
Senate Banking Committee Hearings
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Michael Barr attended
Senator Warren Preliminary Questions
JPMorgan-FRC Acquisition Issues Raised
Warren “very problematic deal”
“FDIC looked after JP Morgan”
Banking, social media risk management
Reinforcing monitoring procedures… “poison, not medicine”
Deposit withdrawal concerns grow amid SVB crisis
Nomura: “Social media problems may arise again”
Settlement of lawsuit against Deutsche Bank Epstein
Deutsche Bank Settles Epstein Lawsuit
$75 million paid to victims
What is the Epstein lawsuit?
Ignoring Banknotes, Illegal Signals
Millionaire Epstein
Prostitution using a specific account
There were signs of illegal financial transactions
Bank ignores account use identification process
After Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan?
The amount of litigation is greater.
4. Report
Charles Schwab/FedEx
◆ Deutsche “Charles Schwab, expected to rise again”
‘Buy’, $71 price target
“An increase in market volatility is expected”
P/E -25% lower than S&P..Valuation lower
Expecting financial stability as cash outflows decrease
“It will rise in volatility for 3-6 months”
◆ Deutch “earnings next month, expected to rise”
FedEx ‘buy’ reconfirmed
Increase target price from 240 to $282
“Next month results, positive catalyst…no risk”
Estimated $20.15 in 2024.. Consensus +11%
“Expectations for next year’s earnings will boost stock prices”
New York = Jeong So-ram/Shin In-kyu Correspondent [email protected]
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