2024-01-18 02:59:00
Published on January 17, 2024 at 9:59 p.m.
Updated January 17, 2024 at 10:00 p.m.
The true face of winter, here it is. Forecast.
And bref:
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First portion of winter marked by mildness;
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A paradigm shift is anticipated for the rest of the winter in Quebec;
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The more persistent cold should appear in February.
Two winters
Naturally, the second portion of winter is colder than the first. This year, the first 45 days of the season were particularly mild in Montreal. Indeed, the metropolis recorded a positive anomaly of 4°C with an average of -1.9°C. According to the models, the second half should have temperatures close to normal. Overall, the 2023-2024 winter would be mild, which is in line with our seasonal forecast.
Vortex present
Meteorologists estimate that the context would generally be favorable for cold spells in Quebec. In fact, the polar vortex should express itself more. Models indicate that it would be present on this side of the globe, making sporadic cold incursions possible. Note, however, that the temperatures would not be extreme even if the mercury occasionally dips below seasonal norms. With these significantly more wintery conditions during this period, lovers of outdoor activities will be able to take full advantage of them. Is Quebec about to lose its winter? It seems not.
Cold outbreaks
The second portion of winter runs from January 15 to February 29 this year. It is therefore the meteorological season and not the astronomical one. From March 1, Quebec begins spring. In the meantime, the province could experience a few more severe cold spells. In fact, a surge is defined by a sequence of at least three days with temperatures below -20°C for the south of the province and -30°C for the northern sectors. On average, five of these sequences are recorded during the last 45 days of the season. No minimum of -20°C was observed during the first half of winter in southern Quebec, which rarely occurs.
With the collaboration of André Monette, Bertin Ossonon and Réjean Ouimet, meteorologists.
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