2024-01-01 15:36:59
The crypto market achieved a significant boom in 2023, the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, for example, brought last year with an annual return of 160%. This explosive force also lifted many altcoins as the bull market got underway. Let’s take a closer look at the biggest exchange rate increases of 2023.
Solana’s big comeback
The biggest return of 2023 was produced by Solana, which rose 1,215% from its December 2022 low of $8.27. The SOL exchange rate fell by 95% in 2022. It was one of the biggest losers of the year when it dipped below $10, mainly due to its exposure to FTX.
However, Solana’s rise in 2023, despite the FTX bankruptcy, can be attributed to its flexibility, significant growth in the use of decentralized applications, increased market demand and network activity, and improved network stability.
Solana’s mobile accessibility and emphasis on efficient transaction processing capabilities also attracted new users and developers, strengthening its market position and acceptance.
The SOL exchange rate analysis
However, the technical data of Solana’s exchange rate chart paint a bearish outlook for the beginning of 2024. Notably, SOL’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 70, raising the possibility of a potential downside in the coming weeks. Furthermore, SOL’s sell scenario is also on the rise as it struggles to close above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line near $132.
The $132 resistance level played a crucial role in capping Solana’s upside attempts in March 2022, which subsequently led to a 94% price crash. SOL carries the risk of a similar decline in the first half of 2024. The primary downside target is at the multi-year uptrend line support (around $40).
However, in the second half of the year, SOL may resume testing the rising trendline support. Then, by the end of the year, a rise to the previous record high level of around $265 can also be considered.
Tron is up 1,270% since the Covid-19 crash
Tron’s value fell more than 98% during the 2018-2020 bear cycle of the crypto market. However, TRX/USD has rallied over 1,270% since hitting a low near $0.0076 in March 2020.
Tron’s price rise coincides with its strong performance in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. Notably, the total value pledged (TVL) in the Tron ecosystem increased from nearly 30 million TRX in April 2020 to over 76 billion TRX (~$8 billion) by December 2023.
In addition, Tron’s token burning has continued, reducing active supply against increasing TVL, which is expected to push the price upwards.
Tron became the largest blockchain of Tether USDT stablecoin, whose market capitalization also increased by 2023. Today, more than 50% of all USDT, or nearly $49 billion, exists on the Tron blockchain.
Analyzing the longer-term chart, it appears that Tron has reached the top of the price range of the giant triangle. Therefore, in the first quarter of 2024, the price of TRX will likely fluctuate between the upper trendline (~$0.108) and the lower trendline (~$0.095) of the triangle.
However, like all cryptocurrencies, Tron’s price performance for the rest of 2024 will depend heavily on broader factors such as the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the April halving of Bitcoin, and the global economy in general.
The $0.20 target for 2024 could be within reach if TRX closes firmly above the upper trend line of the triangle on the weekly chart.
Conversely, a break below the lower trend line of the triangle risks TRX falling towards $0.056. This level coincides with the 0.236 Fibonacci line and the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave).
Avalanche price increased by 370%
Avalanche is up nearly 370% from its September 2023 cycle low of $8.65. This strong rebound comes after a 94.25% drop, which was one of the biggest during the previous bear market.
Interestingly, Avalanche’s boom came after unlocking nearly 19 million AVAX tokens in the second half of 2023. Rising prices indicate that markets have easily absorbed the new supply.
Still, Avalanche network metrics show weaker underlying demand. For example, in the Avalanche ecosystem a TVL it fell to around 23 million AVAX in December, compared to around 55 million AVAX in September when the rally began.
AVAX’s outlook for 2024
The weakness of AVAX’s uptrend can be seen in the growing divergence between rising prices and falling volumes.
A price increase without significant trading volume indicates that there is no strong conviction behind the price movement. This could mean that fewer traders are participating in the market, and those who are, are not entirely sure of the sustainability of the price rally.
On December 29, AVAX price stopped at the 0.618 Fibonacci line near $50.50 as resistance. A correction towards the next Fib line at $29.50, which could take place in Q1 2024, appears to be already underway.
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